IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jebusi/v122y2022ics014861952200039x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Markets price politicians: Evidence from China’s municipal bond markets

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, He
  • Yao, Yang
  • Zhou, Yue

Abstract

This paper studies China’s municipal bond markets to find whether mayors’ abilities to grow the economy is priced by investors. Studying the primary market, we find that mayors’ abilities increases investors’ demand for municipal bonds. As a result, a one standard deviation increase in a mayor’s ability reduces investors’ demand yields by 11.4 basis points. A study of the secondary market finds similar results. Ability has stronger impacts on bonds with longer terms, issued by issuers with lower ratings or issued in more competitive markets. Ability also has stronger impacts in the first year of a mayor’s tenure and on bonds issued by economically or financially less developed cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, He & Yao, Yang & Zhou, Yue, 2022. "Markets price politicians: Evidence from China’s municipal bond markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:122:y:2022:i:c:s014861952200039x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2022.106083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014861952200039X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2022.106083?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    2. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    3. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    4. Wang, Zhaoguang & Yao, Yang & Zhang, Junni, 2022. "The competence-loyalty tradeoff in China's political selection," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 369-393.
    5. Chenggang Xu, 2011. "The Fundamental Institutions of China's Reforms and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1076-1151, December.
    6. Duyvesteyn, Johan & Martens, Martin & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2016. "Political risk and expected government bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 498-512.
    7. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    8. Jonathan Brogaard & Lili Dai & Phong T H Ngo & Bohui Zhang, 2020. "Global Political Uncertainty and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1737-1780.
    9. Marlene Amstad & Zhiguo He, 2019. "Chinese Bond Market and Interbank Market," NBER Working Papers 25549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    11. Ernesto Dal Bó & Frederico Finan & Olle Folke & Torsten Persson & Johanna Rickne, 2017. "Who Becomes A Politician?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1877-1914.
    12. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2020. "Financing dies in darkness? The impact of newspaper closures on public finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 445-467.
    13. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    14. Timothy Besley, 2005. "Political Selection," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 43-60, Summer.
    15. Lin William Cong & Haoyu Gao & Jacopo Ponticelli & Xiaoguang Yang, 2019. "Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3412-3460.
    16. Meghana Ayyagari & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2010. "Formal versus Informal Finance: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3048-3097, August.
    17. Xi, Tianyang & Yao, Yang & Zhang, Muyang, 2018. "Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1046-1061.
    18. Ruixue Jia & Masayuki Kudamatsu & David Seim, 2015. "Political Selection In China: The Complementary Roles Of Connections And Performance," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 631-668, August.
    19. Jonathan Brogaard & Lili Dai & Phong T H Ngo & Bohui Zhang, 2020. "Global Political Uncertainty and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1737-1780.
    20. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Michael Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion," NBER Working Papers 22801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Yang Yao & Muyang Zhang, 2015. "Subnational leaders and economic growth: evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 405-436, December.
    22. Amiyatosh Purnanandam & Daniel Weagley, 2016. "Can Markets Discipline Government Agencies? Evidence from the Weather Derivatives Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 303-334, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gao, Haoyu & Ru, Hong & Tang, Dragon Yongjun, 2021. "Subnational debt of China: The politics-finance nexus," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 881-895.
    2. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    3. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Xi, Tianyang & Yao, Yang & Zhang, Muyang, 2018. "Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1046-1061.
    5. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    6. Gyourko, Joseph & Shen, Yang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Rongjie, 2022. "Land finance in China: Analysis and review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Zhu, Xiaodong, 2021. "The varying shadow of China's banking system," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 135-146.
    8. Zhang, Min & Zhang, Yahong, 2022. "Monetary stimulus policy in China: The bank credit channel," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Mo, Jiawei, 2018. "Land financing and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese counties," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 218-239.
    10. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Fan, Jianyong & Liu, Yu & Zhang, Qi & Zhao, Peng, 2022. "Does government debt impede firm innovation? Evidence from the rise of LGFVs in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2018. "A Review of China’s Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Guo, Di & Jiang, Kun & Xu, Chenggang & Yang, Xiyi, 2023. "Geographic clusters, regional productivity and resource reallocation across firms: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    14. Zixing Wang & Meirong Zhang, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Associated with Land Finance in China: A Perspective Based on the Urban–Rural Income Gap," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, September.
    15. Francesco D'Acunto & Michael Weber & Jin Xie & Michael Weber, 2019. "Punish One, Teach A Hundred: The Sobering Effect of Punishment on the Unpunished," CESifo Working Paper Series 7512, CESifo.
    16. Gu, Yanwei & Guo, Jing & Liang, Xiao & Zhao, Yajun, 2022. "Does the debt-growth link differ across private and public debt? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Dechun Liu & Xinye Zheng & Yihua Yu, 2022. "Public Debt Competition in Local China: Evidence and Mechanism of Spatial Interactions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S2), pages 91-105, November.
    18. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2018. "The Financing of Local Government in the People’s Republic of China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," ADBI Working Papers 800, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Wang, Yabin & Wu, Sharon Xiaohui, 2023. "Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Guonan Ma & Jinzhao Chen, 2019. "The Role of Internally Financed Capex in Rising Chinese Corporate Debts," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 413-442, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political human capital; Municipal bonds; Executive constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • P43 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:122:y:2022:i:c:s014861952200039x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-economics-and-business .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.