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Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data

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  • Kaiji Chen
  • Haoyu Gao
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

We study how a fiscal expansion via infrastructure investment influences the dynamic impacts of monetary stimulus on credit allocation. We develop a two-stage approach and apply it to the Chinese economy with a confidential loan-level dataset that covers all sectors. We find that infrastructure investment significantly weakened monetary policy's transmission to credit allocated to private firms, while reinforcing the monetary effects on loans to state-owned firms. This fiscal-monetary interaction channel is key to understanding the preferential credit access enjoyed by state-owned firms during the stimulus period. Consequently, monetary stimulus crowded out private investment and lowered efficiency in capital allocation.

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  • Kaiji Chen & Haoyu Gao & Patrick C. Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2020. "Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 27763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27763
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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