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Are people willing to pay to prevent natural disasters?

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  • Guiso, Luigi
  • Jappelli, Tullio

Abstract

We implement a survey experiment to study whether awareness of the consequences of hydrogeological risk affects people’s willingness to fight it. We use a representative panel of 5,000 Italian individuals interviewed at quarterly frequency, starting in October 2023. We elicit survey participants’ willingness to contribute to a public fund to finance investment to secure areas exposed to hydrogeological risk under different information treatments. We find that disclosing information about the consequences of hydrogeological risk causes individuals to increase both support for public funding and individual willingness to pay for the policy. Compared to the control group, individuals exposed to the treatment were 9 percentage points more likely to contribute to the fund and more willing to contribute an additional €29. Applying the information treatment to the whole working age population could raise as much as €0.26 billion per year. The willingness to pay depends on individual knowledge that the success of the policy depends critically on the willingness to pay of other citizens. Our results suggest also that one-off campaigns increase the willingness to pay only in the short run, and to be effective campaigns should not be time limited. In fact, refreshing the treatment in a follow-up survey reinstates its effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 2026. "Are people willing to pay to prevent natural disasters?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:242:y:2026:i:c:s0167268126000041
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107416
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    2. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff & Meyer, Justus & van Rooij, Maarten, 2025. "How do rising temperatures affect inflation expectations?," Working Paper Series 3132, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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