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Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Naumann

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Carmelo Cammalleri

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Luc Feyen

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

Abstract

While climate change will alter the distribution of water in time and space, quantifications of drought risk under global warming remain uncertain. Here, we show that in Europe, drought damages could strongly increase with global warming and cause a regional imbalance in future drought impacts. In the absence of climate action (4 °C in 2100 and no adaptation), annual drought losses in the European Union and United Kingdom combined are projected to rise to more than €65 billion per year compared with €9 billion per year currently, or two times larger when expressed relative to the size of the economy. Drought losses show the strongest rise in southern and western parts of Europe, where drought conditions at 4 °C could reduce regional agriculture economic output by 10%. With high warming, drought impacts will become a fraction of current impacts in northern and northeastern regions. Keeping global warming well below 2 °C would avoid most impacts in affected regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Naumann & Carmelo Cammalleri & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Luc Feyen, 2021. "Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 485-491, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01044-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Zhenheng & Sun, Hao & Zhang, Tian & Xu, Huanyu & Wu, Dan & Gao, JinHua, 2023. "Evaluating established deep learning methods in constructing integrated remote sensing drought index: A case study in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    2. Raphael Calel & David A. Stainforth, 2025. "Little floods everywhere: what will climate change mean for you?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 1-9, January.
    3. Grzegorz Mikiciuk & Tymoteusz Miller & Anna Kisiel & Danuta Cembrowska-Lech & Małgorzata Mikiciuk & Adrianna Łobodzińska & Kamila Bokszczanin, 2024. "Harnessing Beneficial Microbes for Drought Tolerance: A Review of Ecological and Agricultural Innovations," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-41, December.
    4. Tobias Dalhaus & Linda Steinhübel & Bernhard Dalheimer & Liesbeth Colen, 2024. "The future of research on sustainable food systems: Building an early‐career network of agricultural economists in Europe," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 319-324, April.
    5. Holtmann, Anne & Huth, Andreas & Bohn, Friedrich & Fischer, Rico, 2024. "Assessing the impact of multi-year droughts on German forests in the context of increased tree mortality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    6. Diego Macias & Berny Bisselink & Cesar Carmona-Moreno & Jean-Noël Druon & Olaf Duteil & Elisa Garcia-Gorriz & Bruna Grizzetti & Jordi Guillen & Svetla Miladinova & Alberto Pistocchi & Chiara Piroddi &, 2025. "The overlooked impacts of freshwater scarcity on oceans as evidenced by the Mediterranean Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Zhang, Q. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Wang, H. & Li, Y.F. & Shen, Z.Y., 2024. "Multivariate time series convolutional neural networks for long-term agricultural drought prediction under global warming," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Kasra Jam & Ali Noroozi & Seyed Habibollah Mosavi, 2025. "A holistic view of sustainability in water resources management in the European Union: challenges and threats," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 2083-2116, January.
    9. Xu, Yingying & Lü, Haishen & Yagci, Ali Levent & Zhu, Yonghua & Liu, Di & Wang, Qimeng & Xu, Haiting & Pan, Ying & Su, Jianbin, 2024. "Influence of groundwater on the propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural drought during crop growth periods: A case study in Huaibei Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    10. Romy Carmen Brockhoff & Robbert Biesbroek & Bregje Bolt, 2022. "Drought Governance in Transition: a Case Study of the Meuse River Basin in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2623-2638, June.
    11. Chenggang Li & Yikang Wan & Zhenci Xu & Xiangbo Fan & Chenyang Shuai & Xuemei Yu & Yuanyuan Tan, 2024. "Impacts and Pathways of the Belt and Road Initiative on Sustainable Development Goals of the Involved Countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 2976-2989, August.
    12. Arthur Charpentier & Molly James & Hani Ali, 2021. "Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France," Papers 2107.07668, arXiv.org.
    13. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Menon, Nidhiya, 2024. "Climate Shocks, Intimate Partner Violence, and the Protective Role of Climate-Resilience Projects," IZA Discussion Papers 17529, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Zulfiqar Ali & Sadia Qamar & Nasrulla Khan & Muhammad Faisal & Saad Sh. Sammen, 2023. "A New Regional Drought Index under X-bar Chart Based Weighting Scheme – The Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index (QBRDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1895-1911, March.
    15. Simon Hoeg, 2024. "Potential Amplifiers of Hydrological Drought: A Deep Dive into the Seasonal Variations of New, Young, and Old Water Fractions in the Stream Discharge of a Pre-Alpine Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(15), pages 6191-6212, December.
    16. Michael Nones & Hossein Hamidifar & Seyed Mohammad Bagher Shahabi-Haghighi, 2024. "Exploring EM-DAT for depicting spatiotemporal trends of drought and wildfires and their connections with anthropogenic pressure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(1), pages 957-973, January.
    17. Sheunesu Ruwanza & Gladman Thondhlana & Menelisi Falayi, 2022. "Research Progress and Conceptual Insights on Drought Impacts and Responses among Smallholder Farmers in South Africa: A Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.

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