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Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence

Author

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  • Ropele, Tiziano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Coibion, Olivier

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

We match survey data of Italian firms that includes a repeated experiment in which information about inflation is randomly provided to firms over time with detailed credit data that covers the borrowing decisions of firms. This allows us to study how exogenous variation in inflation expectations causally affects the borrowing decisions of Italian firms. We document a number of new results. Firms with exogenously higher inflation expectations end up paying higher interest rates on average but do not change the overall demand of loans. Instead, we find a significant rebalancing of firms' borrowing decisions away from lower-interest long-term loans and toward higher-interest short-term loans. In anticipation of rising future interest rates linked to higher expected inflation, firms also take on new long-term loans to pay down existing loans, thereby locking in interest rate savings. Firms that are relatively more knowledgeable about financial tools engage in the latter particularly strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ropele, Tiziano & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 15614, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15614
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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
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    4. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Rüdiger Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Survey and a Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9427, CESifo.
    5. Acharya, Viral & Almeida, Heitor & Ippolito, Filippo & Perez, Ander, 2014. "Credit lines as monitored liquidity insurance: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 287-319.
    6. Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, February.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Okan Akarsu & Emrehan Aktug & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "Inflation Expectations and Firms' Decisions in High Inflation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," Working Papers 2512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Pasiouras, Fotios & Rizos, Anastasios & Stratopoulou, Artemis, 2025. "Discouraged Borrowers and Sentimental Shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Bartscher, Alina & Duernecker, Georg & Goensch, Johannes & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2026. "Causal Effects of Interest Rate Beliefs on Firm Decisions and their Aggregate Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 21123, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Akarsu, Okan & Aktuğ, Emrehan & Aldan, Altan & Seven, Ünal, 2026. "A quasi-experiment in monetary policy: The impact of unexpected easing on inflation expectations and firm behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics

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