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Causal Effects of Interest Rate Beliefs on Firm Decisions and Their Aggregate Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Alina Kristin Bartscher
  • Georg Duernecker
  • Johannes Goensch
  • Nils Wehrhöfer

Abstract

We study firms' financial and real decisions after an exogenous change in their interest rate beliefs induced by a survey experiment with an information treatment. Firms revise their expectations downward after learning about the European Central Bank's policy rate. Moreover, we find a reduction in interest rate uncertainty. We link the survey to credit register data and find that treated firms both increase their loan amounts and shift their loan structure toward longer-term, fixed-rate credit with lower interest rates. Using balance sheet data, we also show that treated firms invest more following the RCT. These effects are driven by small firms. We rationalize our findings in a stylized model of firms with imperfect information about the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Kristin Bartscher & Georg Duernecker & Johannes Goensch & Nils Wehrhöfer, 2026. "Causal Effects of Interest Rate Beliefs on Firm Decisions and Their Aggregate Implications," CESifo Working Paper Series 12442, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12442
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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