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Expecting Climate Change: A Nationwide Field Experiment in the Housing Market

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Listed:
  • Daryl Fairweather
  • Matthew E. Kahn
  • Robert D. Metcalfe
  • Sebastian Sandoval Olascoaga

Abstract

Climate change presents new risks for property in the United States. Due to the high cost and sometimes unavailability of location-specific property risk data, home buyers can greatly benefit from acquiring knowledge about these risks. To explore this, a large-scale nationwide natural field experiment was conducted through Redfin to estimate the causal impact of providing home-specific flood risk information on the behavior of home buyers in terms of their search, bidding, and purchasing decisions. Redfin randomly assigned 17.5 million users to receive information detailing the flood risk associated with the properties they searched for on the platform. Our analysis reveals several key findings: (1) the flood risk information influences every stage of the house buying process, including the initial search, bidding activities, and final purchase; (2) individuals are willing to make trade-offs concerning property amenities in order to own a property with a lower flood risk; (3) the impact of the flood risk information on behavior is more pronounced for users conducting searches in high flood risk areas, but does not differ significantly between buyers in Republican and Democrat Counties; and (4) the information resulted in changes to property prices and altered the market's hedonic equilibrium, providing a new finding that climate adaptation can be forward-thinking and proactive.

Suggested Citation

  • Daryl Fairweather & Matthew E. Kahn & Robert D. Metcalfe & Sebastian Sandoval Olascoaga, 2024. "Expecting Climate Change: A Nationwide Field Experiment in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 33119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33119
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    1. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicola Garbarino & Sascha Möhrle & Florian Neumeier & Marie-Theres von Schickfus, 2024. "Disaster Aid and Support for Mandatory Insurance: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," ifo Working Paper Series 406, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Anna Bellaver & Lorenzo Costantini & Ariadna Fosch & Anna Monticelli & David Scala & Marco Pangallo, 2025. "Floods do not sink prices, historical memory does: How flood risk impacts the Italian housing market," Papers 2502.12116, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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