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Adjusting to Rain Before It Falls

Author

Listed:
  • Mitch Downey

    (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Nelson Lind

    (Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322)

  • Jeffrey G. Shrader

    (School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

Abstract

Unchecked climate change will cause precipitation volatility to increase around the world, leading to economic damages in the face of adjustment costs. We estimate these damages for construction—an economically important, climate exposed industry. Empirically, employment falls in response to forecasted rainfall and more so as the forecast horizon increases. This pattern allows for identification of labor adjustment costs via a multisector model of local labor markets calibrated to our estimates. When rainfall is anticipatable one month ahead, construction firms pay 10% of monthly profit to adjust. They pay less than 1% for rainfall anticipatable six months ahead. Without further adaptation or forecast improvements, increased rainfall volatility due to climate change is projected to lead to more costly adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitch Downey & Nelson Lind & Jeffrey G. Shrader, 2023. "Adjusting to Rain Before It Falls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7399-7422, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:69:y:2023:i:12:p:7399-7422
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4697
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