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Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values?

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  • Beltrán, Allan
  • Maddison, David
  • Elliott, Robert J R

Abstract

Economic theory suggests that, other things being equal, properties located within a floodplain should suffer a price discount. A survey of the existing evidence nonetheless reveals that this price discount lies anywhere between −75.5% to a +61.0% price premium. In this paper we summarise and explore the wide variation in the results to obtain ‘best’ estimates with which to guide policy. Results from our meta-analysis comprising 37 published works and 364 point estimates indicate marked differences between studies according to when and where they were conducted. For coastal regions the results show that properties located in the floodplain command higher prices; this finding is however likely to be caused by a high correlation between omitted coastal amenities and flood risk. There is moreover, evidence that publication bias affects the coastal flooding literature. Results from meta-regression analyses intended to uncover sources of heterogeneity confirm that controlling for time elapsed since the most recent flood is especially important. For inland flooding the price discount associated with location in the 100-year floodplain is −4.6%. Although other estimates are defensible, we suggest this figure be used as a rule of thumb to determine the benefits of flood relief projects to households.

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  • Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert J R, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 668-685.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:146:y:2018:i:c:p:668-685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.12.015
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    3. Miyuki Hino & Marshall Burke, 2020. "Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values?," NBER Working Papers 26807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins & Alison Hill, 2019. "Climate Risk and Beliefs: Evidence from New York Floodplains," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Handi Chandra‐Putra & Clinton J. Andrews, 2020. "An integrated model of real estate market responses to coastal flooding," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 424-435, April.
    8. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-86.
    9. Marvin Schütt, 2021. "Systematic Variation in Waste Site Effects on Residential Property Values: A Meta-Regression Analysis and Benefit Transfer," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(3), pages 381-416, March.
    10. Bakkensen, Laura A. & Ma, Lala, 2020. "Sorting over flood risk and implications for policy reform," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Alexander Bisaro & Mark Bel & Jochen Hinkel & Sien Kok & Laurens M. Bouwer, 2020. "Leveraging public adaptation finance through urban land reclamation: cases from Germany, the Netherlands and the Maldives," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 671-689, June.
    12. Chiang Hsieh, Lin-Han, 2021. "Is it the flood, or the disclosure? An inquiry to the impact of flood risk on residential housing prices," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Chang, H.H., 2018. "Stigmatized versus Capitalization Effect on Farmland Prices - Application to the Agricultural Disaster Relief Program in Taiwan," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276977, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Ahmadiani, Mona & Ferreira, Susana, 2021. "Well-being effects of extreme weather events in the United States," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins, 2020. "Climate Risk and Beliefs in New York Floodplains," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1069-1111.
    16. Maha AbdelHalim & Jean Dubé & Nicolas Devaux, 2021. "The Spatial and Temporal Decomposition of the Effect of Floods on Single-Family House Prices: A Laval, Canada Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    17. Tzong-Haw Lee & Hung-Hao Chang & Yi-Ting Hsieh & Bo-Yuan Chang, 2021. "Can Agricultural Disaster Relief Programs Affect Farmland Prices? Empirical Evidence from Farmland Transaction Data," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, July.
    18. Netusil, Noelwah R. & Moeltner, Klaus & Jarrad, Maya, 2019. "Floodplain designation and property sale prices in an urban watershed," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
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    20. Rözer, Viktor & Surminski, Swenja, 2021. "Current and future flood risk of new build homes across different socio-economic neighbourhoods in England and Wales," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108923, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flood risk; Hedonic valuation; Meta-analysis; Meta-regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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