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Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature across U.S. Climate Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Garth Heutel

    (Georgia State University and NBER)

  • Nolan H. Miller

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • David Molitor

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Garth Heutel & Nolan H. Miller & David Molitor, 2021. "Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature across U.S. Climate Regions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 740-753, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:4:p:740-753
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00936
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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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