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Short-Term Rental Bans and Housing Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Lisbon

Author

Listed:
  • Gonçalves, Duarte

    (Pompeu Fabra University)

  • Peralta, Susana

    (Nova School of Business and Economics)

  • Pereira dos Santos, João

    (ISEG)

Abstract

We estimate the causal impact of a 2018 zoning reform that banned new short-term rental registries in some parts of Lisbon. The short-term rental licence expires when the house is sold, hence the ban removes the option value of short-term renting a property. We rely on two administrative data sets on short-term rental registries and real estate transactions, complemented with Airbnb data on listings and prices. We employ a difference-in-differences estimation taking advantage of the spatial discontinuity in the ban. We document a spike in newly registered housing units, between the announcement and the implementation of the ban. The reform decreases real estate prices by 8%, mostly in two-bedroom dwellings, for which the price drops 20%. We conclude that heterogeneous effects are key to understanding the backlash against short-term rentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonçalves, Duarte & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "Short-Term Rental Bans and Housing Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Lisbon," IZA Discussion Papers 15706, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15706
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alda Botelho Azevedo & Inês Gonçalves & João Pereira dos Santos, 2025. "Can’t Buy Me Home – Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis," GEE Papers 191, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jun 2025.
    2. Calum Robertson & Sylvain Dejean & Raphaël Suire, 2023. "“Airbnb in the City”: assessing short-term rental regulation in Bordeaux," Post-Print hal-04123595, HAL.
    3. Pereira dos Santos, João & Strohmaier, Kristina, 2024. "All That Glitters? Golden Visas and Real Estate," IZA Discussion Papers 16857, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Botelho Azevedo, Alda & Gonçalves, Inês & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2025. "Can’t Buy Me Home: Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 18073, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. João Pereira dos Santos & Kristina Strohmaier, 2024. "All that glitters? Golden visas and real estate," Working Papers 023, EU Tax Observatory.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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