IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/smu/ecowpa/2103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Quantitative Analysis of Tariffs across U.S. States

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Maria Santacreu

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Michael Sposi

    (Southern Methodist University)

  • Jing Zhang

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

We develop a quantitative framework to assess the cross-state implications of a U.S. trade policy change: a unilateral increase in the import tariff from 2% to 25% across all goods-producing sectors. Although the U.S. gains overall from the tariff increase, we find the impact differs starkly across locations. Changes in real consumption (welfare) range from as high as 3.8% in Wyoming to -0.3% in Florida, depending mainly on how exposed states are to differentially-impacted sectors. As a result, the "preferred" tariff rate varies greatly across states. Foreign retaliation in trade policy substantially reduces the welfare gains across states, while perpetuating the cross-state variation in those gains. The presence of internal trade frictions amplifies the welfare impacts of changes in trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2021. "A Quantitative Analysis of Tariffs across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 2103, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:smu:ecowpa:2103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ftp1.economics.smu.edu/WorkingPapers/2021/SPOSI/SPOSI-2021-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabian Eckert, 2019. "Growing Apart: Tradable Services and the Fragmentation of the U.S. Economy," 2019 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Levchenko, Andrei A. & Zhang, Jing, 2016. "The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 96-111.
    3. Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Evolving comparative advantage, sectoral linkages, and structural change," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 75-87.
    4. Dai, Mian & Yotov, Yoto & Zylkin, Thomas, 2013. "On the Trade-diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2013-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, revised 15 Sep 2014.
    5. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    6. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    7. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    8. William B. Peterman, 2016. "Reconciling Micro And Macro Estimates Of The Frisch Labor Supply Elasticity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 100-120, January.
    9. Coşar, A. Kerem & Demir, Banu, 2016. "Domestic road infrastructure and international trade: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 232-244.
    10. Giri, Rahul & Yi, Kei-Mu & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Gains from trade: Does sectoral heterogeneity matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Dai, Mian & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2014. "On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 321-325.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Makenzie Peake & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2020. "The Economic Effects of the 2018 U.S. Trade Policy: A State-Level Analysis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(4), pages 385-412, October.
    2. Daniel R. Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2020. "On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs," Working Papers 20-18R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 13 Feb 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2021. "What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?," Working Papers 2021-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 08 Mar 2023.
    2. Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2023. "What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to U.S. Tariff Changes," Working Paper Series WP 2023-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    4. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Logan T Lewis & Ryan Monarch & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2022. "Structural Change and Global Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 476-512.
    6. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell Garcia & Wouter Simons, 2018. "The cost of non-TTIP: a global value chain approach," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 617062, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    8. Rodrigo Ad'o & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esp'sito, 2019. "Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Ryan Monarch & Jing Zhang & Logan Lewis, 2017. "Structural Change and Slowdown of International Trade," 2017 Meeting Papers 1542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Foellmi, Reto & Hepenstrick, Christian & Torun, David, 2022. "Triangle Inequalities in International Trade: The Neglected Dimension," CEPR Discussion Papers 17118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Timini, Jacopo & Vidal, Elena, 2021. "Structural gravity and trade agreements: Does the measurement of domestic trade matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    13. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    14. Alviarez, Vanessa, 2019. "Multinational production and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-54.
    15. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Milena Kern & Jörg Paetzold & Hannes Winner, 2021. "Cutting red tape for trade in services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2858-2886, October.
    17. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    18. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2018. "Globalization and Structural Change in the United States: A Quantitative Assessment," 2018 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Larch, Mario & Luckstead, Jeff & Yotov, Yoto, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-16, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    20. Kleinman, Benny & Liu, Ernest & Redding, Stephen, 2020. "International friends and enemies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108480, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Interstate trade; Welfare gains from trade.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:smu:ecowpa:2103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.smu.edu/economics .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ömer Özak (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.smu.edu/economics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.