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Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Daruich
  • Raquel Fernández

Abstract

Universal basic income (UBI) is an increasingly popular policy proposal, but there is no evidence regarding its longer-term consequences. We find that UBI generates large welfare losses in a general equilibrium model with imperfect capital markets, labor market shocks, and intergenerational linkages via skill formation and transfers. This conclusion is robust to various alternative ways of financing UBI. By using observationally equivalent models that eliminate different sources of endogenous dynamic linkages (equilibrium capital market and parental investment in child skills), we show that the latter are largely responsible for the negative welfare consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Daruich & Raquel Fernández, 2024. "Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 38-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:114:y:2024:i:1:p:38-88
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20221099
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2021-06-27 05:10:37

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina, 2025. "Shaping inequality and intergenerational persistence of poverty: Free college or better schools?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Ali Enami & Ugo Gentilini & Patricio Larroulet & Nora Lustig & Emma Monsalve & Siyu Quan & Jamele Rigolini, 2023. "Universal Basic Income Programs: How Much Would Taxes Need to Rise? Evidence for Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(9), pages 1443-1463, September.
    3. Luduvice, André Victor Doherty, 2024. "The macroeconomic effects of universal basic income programs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Rauh, Christopher & Rodrigues dos Santos, Marcelo, 2022. "How do transfers and universal basic income impact the labor market and inequality?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2024. "Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools," NBER Working Papers 32467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gubello, Michele, 2024. "Social trust and the support for universal basic income," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2024. "Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Min-Hyuk Cho & Chan-Goo Yi, 2022. "Adaptive Social Innovation Derived from Digital Economy and Its Impact on Society and Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Jalles, João Tovar & Karras, Georgios, 2024. "Tax progressivity and income inequality in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    10. Raphael Koster & Miruna Pîslar & Andrea Tacchetti & Jan Balaguer & Leqi Liu & Romuald Elie & Oliver P. Hauser & Karl Tuyls & Matt Botvinick & Christopher Summerfield, 2025. "Deep reinforcement learning can promote sustainable human behaviour in a common-pool resource problem," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Juan Herreno & Sergio Ocampo, 2020. "Self-Employment and Development," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20209, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    12. Boar, Corina & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2022. "Efficient redistribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 78-91.
    13. Cieplinski, André & D'Alessandro, Simone & Dwarkasing, Chandni & Guarnieri, Pietro, 2023. "Narrowing women’s time and income gaps: An assessment of the synergies between working time reduction and universal income schemes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    14. Axelle Ferriere & Philipp Grubener & Gaston Navarro & Oliko Vardishvili, 2021. "Larger transfers financed with more progressive taxes? On the optimal design of taxes and transfers," Working Papers halshs-03466762, HAL.
    15. Nadeem Akhtar & Hidayat Ullah Khan & Muhammad Asif Jan & Cornelius B. Pratt & Ma Jianfu, 2021. "Exploring the Determinants of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Its Impact on Local Communities," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.
    16. Daniel Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2023. "On The Distributional Effects Of International Tariffs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1311-1346, November.
    17. Mpho Yvonne Lerotholi & Solly Matshonisa Seeletse, 2024. "Minimizing falsified financial reports: just an opinion on South African taxes," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(2), pages 174-179, March.
    18. Kangoh Lee, 2021. "Labor market frictions, capital, taxes and employment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1329-1359, December.
    19. Guillermo Cruces & Verónica Amarante & Estefanía Lotitto, 2024. "Generative Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Labor Markets in Developing Countries: A Review Essay," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0343, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    20. Ndeye Maty PAYE, 2021. "Digital Teaching/Learning In Covid 19 Time At The University Of The Gambia," Annals of the University of Craiova, Series Psychology, Pedagogy, Teacher Training Department, University of Craiova, vol. 43(1), pages 65-74, June.
    21. Corina Boar & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2020. "Efficient Redistribution," NBER Working Papers 27622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Guimarães, Luis & Lourenço, Diogo, 2024. "The Imperfections of Conditional Programs and the Case for Universal Basic Income," MPRA Paper 119964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Hasumi, Ryo & Takano, Tetsuaki, 2025. "Comparing the earned income tax credit and universal basic income in a heterogeneous agent model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 238-247.
    24. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Peruffo, Marcel Cortes & Cordeiro Valério, André, 2021. "Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Pitfalls and Alternatives," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 821, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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