IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reihed/v66y2025i6d10.1007_s11162-025-09852-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local Labor Market Alignment of Short-Term Certificate Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Sophie McGuinness

    (Florida State University)

Abstract

Short-term certificate (STC) programs at community colleges represent a long-standing policy priority to align accelerated postsecondary credentials with job opportunities in local labor markets. Despite large investments in developing STCs, little evidence exists about where and when STCs are opened and whether community colleges open new programs of study in coordination with labor market trends. Using public workforce and postsecondary data, I examine health and manufacturing STC program openings to understand alignment with labor market activity in related industries. I find that STCs are spatially aligned across labor markets within a state, but not necessarily temporally aligned with county-specific trends. One additional STC per college is associated with labor markets that had 2–3% points more total employment and new hires in related industries. Large launches of clustered STC programs occurred before periods of growth in health employment but declines in manufacturing. Large launches preceded earnings growth of 2–5% points in both sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie McGuinness, 2025. "Local Labor Market Alignment of Short-Term Certificate Programs," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(6), pages 1-27, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reihed:v:66:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11162-025-09852-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11162-025-09852-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11162-025-09852-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11162-025-09852-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    2. Rajeev Darolia & Cory Koedel & Paco Martorell & Katie Wilson & Francisco Perez‐Arce, 2015. "Do Employers Prefer Workers Who Attend For‐Profit Colleges? Evidence from a Field Experiment," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 881-903, September.
    3. Daniel Klasik & Kristin Blagg & Zachary Pekor, 2018. "Out of the Education Desert: How Limited Local College Options are Associated with Inequity in Postsecondary Opportunities," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-26, September.
    4. Lauren Schudde & Meghan Shea, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the Returns to Credits for Public Two-Year College Entrants," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 63(2), pages 337-367, March.
    5. Acton, Riley & Cortes, Kalena E. & Miller, Lois & Morales, Camila, 2024. "Distance to Degrees: How College Proximity Shapes Students' Enrollment Choices and Attainment across Race-Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status," IZA Discussion Papers 17338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Michel Grosz, 2022. "Do Postsecondary Training Programs Respond to Changes in the Labor Market?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 461-487.
    7. Baker, Rachel & Bettinger, Eric & Jacob, Brian & Marinescu, Ioana, 2018. "The Effect of Labor Market Information on Community College Students’ Major Choice," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 18-30.
    8. Michel Grosz, 2023. "Admissions Policies, Cohort Composition, and Academic Success: Evidence from California," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(4), pages 1242-1272.
    9. Adela Soliz & Cara DeLoach & Hidahis Mesa, 2023. "How Do Community and Technical Colleges Build Cross-Sector Collaborations?," The Journal of Higher Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 94(6), pages 691-719, September.
    10. Ha‐Joon Chang & Antonio Andreoni, 2020. "Industrial Policy in the 21st Century," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 324-351, March.
    11. Darolia, Rajeev & Guo, Chuanyi & Kim, Youngran, 2023. "The Labor Market Returns to Very Short Postsecondary Certificates," IZA Discussion Papers 16081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Michel Grosz & Michal Kurlaender & Ann Stevens, 2022. "Capacity and Flexibility in Community College CTE Programs: Program Offerings and Student Success," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 63(1), pages 140-188, February.
    13. Christopher S Fowler & Leif Jensen, 2020. "Bridging the gap between geographic concept and the data we have: The case of labor markets in the USA," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(7), pages 1395-1414, October.
    14. Carruthers, Celeste K. & Sanford, Thomas, 2018. "Way station or launching pad? Unpacking the returns to adult technical education," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 146-159.
    15. Ann Huff Stevens & Michal Kurlaender & Michel Grosz, 2019. "Career Technical Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from California Community Colleges," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(4), pages 986-1036.
    16. Ryan S. Wells & Ling Chen & Genia M. Bettencourt & Sarah Haas, 2023. "Reconsidering Rural-Nonrural College Enrollment Gaps: The Role of Socioeconomic Status in Geographies of Opportunity," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 64(8), pages 1089-1112, December.
    17. Nichola J. Lowe & Laura Wolf-Powers, 2018. "Who works in a working region? Inclusive innovation in the new manufacturing economy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(6), pages 828-839, June.
    18. Veronica Minaya & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2022. "Labor Market Trajectories for Community College Graduates: How Returns to Certificates and Associate's Degrees Evolve Over Time," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 53-80, Winter.
    19. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz, 2020. "The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(4), pages 593-622, Fall.
    20. Peter Riley Bahr, 2019. "The Labor Market Returns to a Community College Education for Noncompleting Students," The Journal of Higher Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 90(2), pages 210-243, March.
    21. McGranahan, David A. & Cromartie, John & Wojan, Timothy R., 2010. "Nonmetropolitan Outmigration Counties: Some Are Poor, Many Are Prosperous," Economic Research Report 96769, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    22. Riley K. Acton, 2021. "Community College Program Choices in the Wake of Local Job Losses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1129-1154.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lauren Schudde & Meghan Shea, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the Returns to Credits for Public Two-Year College Entrants," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 63(2), pages 337-367, March.
    2. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz, 2020. "The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(4), pages 593-622, Fall.
    3. Tucker Smith, 2024. "Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?," Working Papers 2411, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Pan, Weixiang, 2025. "Firm-specific pay premia and the returns to higher education: Evidence from community colleges," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Alena Bicakova & Guido Matias Cortes & Kelly Foley & Jacopo Mazza & Peter McHenry, 2025. "Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp795, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Juan Esteban Carranza & María Marta Ferreyra & Ana Maria Gazmuri, 2023. "The Dynamic Market for Short-Cycle Higher Education Programs," Borradores de Economia 1265, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Gordon Hanson & Dani Rodrik & Rohan Sandhu, 2025. "The US Place-Based Policy Supply Chain," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Place-Based Policies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Christopher Jepsen & Peter Mueser & Kenneth Troske & Kyung-Seong Jeon, 2021. "The Benefits of Alternatives to Conventional College: Comparing the Labor-Market Returns to For-Profit Schools and Community Colleges," CESifo Working Paper Series 9272, CESifo.
    9. Yanqing Ding & Wei Li & Xin Li & Yinduo Wu & Jin Yang & Xiaoyang Ye, 2021. "Heterogeneous Major Preferences for Extrinsic Incentives: The Effects of Wage Information on the Gender Gap in STEM Major Choice," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(8), pages 1113-1145, December.
    10. Christopher Jepsen & Peter Mueser & Kenneth Troske & Kyung-Seong Jeon, 2023. "Estimates of Earnings Returns by Field of Study for For-Profit Schools and Community Colleges," CESifo Working Paper Series 10754, CESifo.
    11. Gaulke, Amanda P., 2021. "Post-Schooling off-The-Job training and its benefits," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Vanessa Brown & Gardner Carrick & Maggie R. Jones & Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej & John Voorheis & Caroline Walker, 2024. "The Impact of Manufacturing Credentials on Earnings and the Probability of Employment," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 77(4), pages 535-561, August.
    13. Darolia, Rajeev & Mueser, Peter & Cronin, Jacob, 2021. "Labor market returns to a prison GED," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Chang Hyung Lee, 2020. "Minimum Wage Policy and Community College Enrollment Patterns," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(1), pages 178-210, January.
    15. Gaulke, Amanda P., 2022. "Returns to bachelor’s degree completion among stopouts," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Berlingieri, Francesco & Bolz, Theresa, 2020. "Earnings of university dropouts across Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-085, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Nicholas Turner, 2019. "Gainfully Employed?: Assessing the Employment and Earnings of For-Profit College Students Using Administrative Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 342-370.
    18. Susan Dynarski & Brian Jacob & Daniel Kreisman, 2018. "How important are fixed effects and time trends in estimating returns to schooling? Evidence from a replication of Jacobson, Lalonde, and Sullivan, 2005," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1098-1108, November.
    19. Michel Grosz & Tomás Monarrez, 2025. "The Effect of the Great Recession on Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment," Working Papers 25-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Celeste K. Carruthers & Christopher Jepsen, 2020. "Vocational Education: An International Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8718, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reihed:v:66:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11162-025-09852-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.