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The Returns to a Large Community College Program: Evidence from Admissions Lotteries

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  • Michel Grosz

Abstract

This paper estimates the labor market returns to the associate's degree in nursing (ADN), which is one of the most popular community college programs. I use student-level academic and earnings records across two decades for all community college students in California. I leverage random variation from admissions lotteries to produce causal estimates of the effect of the ADN on earnings and employment at a single large ADN program. Enrolling in the program increases earnings by 44 percent and the probability of working in the health care industry by 19 percentage points. These estimates are similar to ones in models that do not use the lottery variation but do control for individual fixed effects and individual-specific linear time trends, which I also estimate in a wider set of institutions where lottery estimates are not possible. In light of concerns about nursing shortages, I estimate that the economic benefit of expanding an ADN program by one seat far outweighs the costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Grosz, 2020. "The Returns to a Large Community College Program: Evidence from Admissions Lotteries," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 226-253, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:226-53
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20170506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Fernando Ferreira & Jesse Rothstein, 2010. "The Value of School Facility Investments: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 215-261.
    2. Alexander Gelber & Adam Isen & Judd B. Kessler, 2016. "The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 423-460.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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