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What about the non-completers? The labor market returns to progress in community college

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  • Zeidenberg, Matthew
  • Scott, Marc
  • Belfield, Clive

Abstract

Despite copious research on the labor market returns to college, very little has adequately modeled the pathways of non-completers or compared their outcomes with those of award-holders. In this paper, we present a novel method for linking non-completers with completers according to their program of study. We use this method to calculate the labor market returns to programs of study, accounting for those who obtain an award and those who do not. We use a large dataset of community college transcripts matched with earnings data. We find that different classification systems – by algorithm, intent or goal – yield very different enrollment patterns across programs. Importantly, these classifications make a substantial difference to earnings patterns. Returns vary by program completion and by program non-completion. Consequently, combining completers and non-completers yields a new pattern of returns. We find that the variance in returns by subject of study is reduced when we combine data on completers and non-completers. In particular, the large returns to nursing awards are substantially lower when we account for the probability of completing a nursing program and the returns to not completing a nursing program. In addition, progression per se does not lead to higher earnings for non-completers: progressing further in a nursing program is no different from accumulating general college credits. If validated, these findings have significant implications for policies on program choice and on student retention policies.

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  • Zeidenberg, Matthew & Scott, Marc & Belfield, Clive, 2015. "What about the non-completers? The labor market returns to progress in community college," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 142-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:142-156
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2015.09.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Tatiana Melguizo & Gregory S. Kienzl & Mariana Alfonso, 2011. "Comparing the Educational Attainment of Community College Transfer Students and Four-Year College Rising Juniors Using Propensity Score Matching Methods," The Journal of Higher Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 82(3), pages 265-291, May.
    12. Liu, Vivian Y.T. & Belfield, Clive R. & Trimble, Madeline J., 2015. "The medium-term labor market returns to community college awards: Evidence from North Carolina," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-55.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leslie S. Stratton & Nabanita Datta Gupta & David Reimer & Anders Holm, 2017. "Modeling Enrollment in and Completion of Vocational Education: The Role of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills by Program Type," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20172, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    2. Austen Peters & Alfred M. Dockery & Sherry bawa, 2022. "Course non-completion and multiple qualifications: re-estimating the returns to education in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 25(1), pages 55-80.
    3. Stenberg, Anders, 2022. "A Note on Evaluating Formal Education for Adults," Working Paper Series 1/2022, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research, revised 14 Jun 2022.
    4. Celeste K. Carruthers & Christopher Jepsen, 2020. "Vocational Education: An International Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8718, CESifo.
    5. Susan Dynarski & Brian Jacob & Daniel Kreisman, 2018. "How important are fixed effects and time trends in estimating returns to schooling? Evidence from a replication of Jacobson, Lalonde, and Sullivan, 2005," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1098-1108, November.
    6. Lauren Schudde & Meghan Shea, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the Returns to Credits for Public Two-Year College Entrants," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 63(2), pages 337-367, March.
    7. Esteban M. Aucejo & Claudia Hupkau & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2020. "Where versus What: College Value-Added and Returns to Field of Study in Further Education," CVER Research Papers 030, Centre for Vocational Education Research.
    8. Judith Scott-Clayton & Qiao Wen, 2019. "Estimating Returns to College Attainment: Comparing Survey and State Administrative Data–Based Estimates," Evaluation Review, , vol. 43(5), pages 266-306, October.
    9. Finn Lattimore & Daniel M. Steinberg & Anna Zhu, 2023. "The Economic Effect of Gaining a New Qualification Later in Life," Papers 2304.01490, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    10. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz, 2020. "The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(4), pages 593-622, Fall.
    11. Stenberg, Anders, 2022. "Does formal education for adults yield long-term multiplier effects or human capital depreciation?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Returns to college; Non-completion; Postsecondary education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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