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Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model

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We estimate a dynamic learning model of college dropout, taking advantage of unique expectations data to greatly reduce our reliance on standard assumptions. Our simulations show that forty-five percent of dropout in the first two years of college can be attributed to what students learn about their academic performance, with this type of learning playing a smaller role later in college. Poorly performing students tend to leave because staying is not worthwhile, rather than because they are at risk of failing out of school. Poor performance substantially decreases the enjoyability of school and substantially influences beliefs about post-college earnings.

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File URL: http://economics.uwo.ca/chcp/workingpapers_docs/wp2013/Stinebrickner_Stinebrickner05.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) in its series University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers with number 20135.

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Date of creation: 2013
Handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20135
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Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Social Science Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5C2

Phone: 519-661-2111 Ext.85244
Web page: http://economics.uwo.ca/research/research_papers/chcp_workingpapers.html

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  1. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2008. "Learning About Academic Ability and the College Drop-Out Decision," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20086, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
  2. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2014. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 426-472.
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  9. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2007. "The Causal Effect of Studying on Academic Performance," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20072, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
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  15. Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2000. "Serially correlated variables in dynamic, discrete choice models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 595-624.
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  36. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2003. "Understanding Educational Outcomes of Students from Low-Income Families: Evidence from a Liberal Arts College with a Full Tuition Subsidy Program," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(3).
  37. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
  38. Tyler Ransom & Esteban Aucejo & Arnaud Maurel & Peter Arcidiacono, 2014. "College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation," 2014 Meeting Papers 529, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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