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A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout

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  • Ralph Stinebrickner
  • Todd R. Stinebrickner

Abstract

Taking advantage of unique longitudinal data, we provide the first characterization of what college students believe at the time of entrance about their final major, relate these beliefs to actual major outcomes, and provide an understanding of why students hold the initial beliefs about majors that they do. The data collection and analysis are based directly on a conceptual model in which a student's final major is best viewed as the end result of a learning process. We find that students enter school quite optimistic about obtaining a science degree, but that relatively few students end up graduating with a science degree. The substantial overoptimism about completing a degree in science can be attributed largely to students beginning school with misperceptions about their ability to perform well academically in science. Copyright 2014, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdt025
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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 81 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 426-472

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Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:81:y:2014:i:1:p:426-472
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
  • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
  • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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  1. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  2. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2011. "Math or Science? Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Examine the Process of Choosing a College Major," NBER Working Papers 16869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peter Arcidiacono & Cory Koedel, 2014. "Race and College Success: Evidence from Missouri," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 20-57, July.
  4. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
  5. Basit Zafar, 2009. "How do college students form expectations?," Staff Reports 378, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2008. "Learning About Academic Ability and the College Drop-Out Decision," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20086, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
  7. Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2008. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability," NBER Working Papers 14451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Todd R. Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2007. "The Causal Effect of Studying on Academic Performance," NBER Working Papers 13341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Determinants of college major choice: identification using an information experiment," Staff Reports 500, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Cited by:

  1. Pedro Silos & Eric Smith, 2012. "Human capital portfolios," Working Paper 2012-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2013. "Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20135, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
  3. Delavande, Adeline & Zafar, Basit, 2014. "University choice: the role of expected earnings, non-pecuniary outcomes and financial constraints," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-38, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  4. Bleemer, Zachary & Zafar, Basit, 2014. "Information heterogeneity and intended college enrollment," Staff Reports 685, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Schnepf, Sylke V., 2014. "Do Tertiary Dropout Students Really Not Succeed in European Labour Markets?," IZA Discussion Papers 8015, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Ritter, Joseph A. & West, Kristine L., 2014. "Field of Study and Earnings Inequality among the Highly Educated: 1993-2010," Miscellaneous Publications 195683, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  7. Abel, Jaison R. & Deitz, Richard & Su, Yaquin, 2014. "Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 20.
  8. Lars J. Kirkebøen & Edwin Leuven & Magne Mogstad, 2015. "Field of study, earnings and self-selection," Discussion Papers 794, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  9. Timothy M. Diette & Manu Raghav, 2014. "A Student’s Dilemma: Higher Starting Salary or Higher GPA," Working Papers 2014-02, DePauw University, Department of Economics and Management.
  10. Andrew Rendall & Michelle Rendall, 2014. "Math matters: education choices and wage inequality," ECON - Working Papers 160, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  11. Winters, John V., 2014. "Foreign and Native-Born STEM Graduates and Innovation Intensity in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 8575, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Berlingieri, Francesco & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2014. "Field of study, qualification mismatch, and wages: Does sorting matter?," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-076, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  13. Abel, Jaison R. & Deitz, Richard, 2013. "Do the benefits of college still outweigh the costs?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 20.
  14. Pedros Silos & Eric Smith, 2014. "Online Appendix to "Human Capital Portfolios"," Technical Appendices 13-132, Review of Economic Dynamics.

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