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Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey T. Denning
  • Eric R. Eide
  • Kevin J. Mumford
  • Richard W. Patterson
  • Merrill Warnick

Abstract

We document that college completion rates have increased since the 1990s, after declining in the 1970s and 1980s. We find that most of the increase in graduation rates can be explained by grade inflation and that other factors, such as changing student characteristics and institutional resources, play little or no role. This is because GPA strongly predicts graduation, and GPAs have been rising since the 1990s. This finding holds in national survey data and in records from nine large public universities. We also find that at a public liberal arts college grades increased, holding performance on identical exams fixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey T. Denning & Eric R. Eide & Kevin J. Mumford & Richard W. Patterson & Merrill Warnick, 2022. "Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-29, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1-29
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20200525
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    Cited by:

    1. Denning, Jeffrey T. & Eide, Eric R. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Sabey, Daniel J., 2022. "Decreasing time to baccalaureate degree in the United States," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Seth Gershenson & Stephen B. Holt & Adam Tyner, 2024. "Making the grade: The effect of teacher grading standards on student outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 305-318, April.
    3. Altindag, Duha T. & Cole, Samuel & Filiz, Elif S., 2025. "An older college professor like me," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Contini, Dalit & Salza, Guido, 2020. "Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Alena Bicakova & Guido Matias Cortes & Kelly Foley & Jacopo Mazza & Peter McHenry, 2025. "Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp795, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Valerie Bostwick & Stefanie Fischer & Matthew Lang, 2022. "Semesters or Quarters? The Effect of the Academic Calendar on Postsecondary Student Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 40-80, February.
    7. Novik, Vitaliy, 2022. "The role of learning in returns to college major: evidence from 2.8 million reviews of 150,000 professors," MPRA Paper 115431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Denning, Jeffrey T. & Turner, Lesley J., 2025. "The graduation part II: Graduate program graduation rates," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    9. Partha Basu & David J Malik & Steven Graunke, 2025. "A 24-year longitudinal study on a STEM gateway general chemistry course and the reduction of achievement disparities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, February.
    10. Mueller, Clemens, 2023. "Reacting to Early Failure in University: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277620, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Makoto Shimoji, 2023. "Setting an exam as an information design problem," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(3), pages 559-579, September.
    12. Phipps, Aaron & Amaya, Alexander, 2023. "Are students time constrained? Course load, GPA, and failing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    13. Batistich, Mary Kate & Bond, Timothy N. & Linde, Sebastian & Mumford, Kevin J., 2024. "Statistical Discrimination and Optimal Mismatch in College Major Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 17237, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Kristin Butcher & Patrick J. McEwan & Akila Weerapana, 2024. "Making the (Letter) Grade: The Incentive Effects of Mandatory Pass/Fail Courses," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 19(3), pages 385-408, Summer.
    15. Margaret Leighton & Jamin D Speer, 2025. "Driven to Achieve: 40 Years of Evidence on College Students’ Skills and Aspirations," Economics Discussion Papers 2502, Department of Economics, The University of St Andrews Business School.
    16. Chesney, Alexander J., 2022. "Should I get a master’s degree?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Timothy F. Harris & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2025. "COVID-19 diagnoses and university student performance: evidence from linked administrative health and education data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 603-637, February.
    18. Benjamin Artz & David M. Welsch, 2021. "Overeducation and wages revisited: A two‐cohort comparison and random coefficients approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 909-936, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

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