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Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth

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Listed:
  • Yuki Hashimoto
  • Ayako Kondo

Abstract

This study aims to examine how each cohort's family formation is affected by labor market conditions experienced in youth in Japan. Although deterioration in youth employment opportunities has often been blamed for Japan's declining marriage and fertility rates, the effects of slack labor market conditions on marriage and fertility are theoretically unclear. We estimate the effects of regional labor market conditions on marriage and fertility, controlling for nation-wide year effects and prefecture fixed effects, and find the following. First, the male unemployment rate is negatively correlated with marriage of women in the local labor market, although the correlation is weak and concentrated on the less educated group. Second, high school-educated women who experienced a recession while entering the labor market are less likely to have children and tend to marry later. In contrast, a recession at entry to the labor market rather increases fertility among college-educated women. The overall impact of labor market conditions experienced in youth on family formation is relatively weak, compared to the substantial losses in earnings and employment stability documented by the existing studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuki Hashimoto & Ayako Kondo, 2010. "Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth," ISER Discussion Paper 0789, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0789
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    File URL: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2010/DP0789.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Linda N. Edwards & Takuya Hasebe & Tadashi Sakai, 2015. "Education and Marriage Decisions of Japanese Women and the Role of the Equal Employment Opportunity Act," Working Papers 7, City University of New York Graduate Center, Ph.D. Program in Economics.
    2. Garrouste, Clémentine & Godard, Mathilde, 2015. "The lasting health impact of leaving school in a bad economy: Britons in the 1970s recession," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1509, CEPREMAP.
    3. repec:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0614-y is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:1:p:140-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:jjieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:27-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    7. Ayako Kondo, 2016. "The effects of recessions on family formation," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 248-248, March.
    8. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Basten, 2012. "Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?," VID Working Papers 1209, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    9. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2014. "Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(23), pages 687-734, September.
    10. XXX, Shuya & Iwata, Shinichiro, 2012. "Fertility and the user cost of home ownership: Evidence from regional panel data," MPRA Paper 37387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Shinichiro Iwata & Michio Naoi, 2017. "The asymmetric housing wealth effect on childbirth," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1373-1397, December.
    12. Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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