IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vid/wpaper/1209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Rita Testa
  • Stuart Basten

Abstract

Using several rounds of the Eurobarometer [EB] survey, we examine the relationship between lifetime fertility intentions and the “Great Recession” in Europe. We suppose that the increase in unemployment rates observed between 2006 and 2011, the years in which the two EB surveys were conducted, are key driving forces behind the decline of fertility intentions observed in some EU countries, like Greece, over the 5-year period. Our findings reveal that the increasing uncertainty attached to the reported fertility intentions substantially contributes to the declining pattern observed over the five years and that people who negatively assess the country economic situation are more likely to plan smaller family sizes than those who have a more optimistic view of the country past short-term economic trend. Eventually, the aggregate negative changes occurred in fertility intentions between 2006 and 2011 are positively correlated with the increase of youth unemployment rates. We might expect a similar declining trend in lifetime fertility intentions also in other countries – such as Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal – in the years to come if the economic crisis starts to be perceived as heavily as in Greece in such countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Basten, 2012. "Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?," VID Working Papers 1209, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  • Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:1209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/subsites/Institute/VID/PDF/Publications/Working_Papers/WP2012_09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hashimoto, Yuki & Kondo, Ayako, 2012. "Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
    2. Samuel Bentolila & Juan J. Dolado & Pierre Cahuc & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2010. "Two-Tier Labor Markets in the Great Recession: France Vs. Spain," Working Papers wp2010_1009, CEMFI.
    3. Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-119.
    4. Lars Dommermuth & Jane E. Klobas & Trude Lappeg√Çrd, 2009. "Now or later? The theory of planned behaviour and fertility intentions," Working Papers 020, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    5. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    6. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294, April.
    7. Gustav Feichtinger & Michael Kuhn & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2011. "The reproductive value as part of the shadow price of population," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(28), pages 709-718, May.
    8. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    9. Tineke Fokkema & Helga A.G. De Valk & Joop de Beer & Coen van Duin, 2008. "The Netherlands: Childbearing within the context of a "Poldermodel" society," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(21), pages 743-794, July.
    10. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    11. Alicia Adsera, 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 189-193, May.
    12. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Ingrid Kubin & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2012. "Coping with Inefficiencies in a New Economic Geography Model," VID Working Papers 1204, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    13. S. Morgan, 1982. "Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 315-334, August.
    14. S. Morgan, 1981. "Intention and uncertainty at later stages of childbearing: the united states 1965 and 1970," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(3), pages 267-285, August.
    15. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-543, May.
    16. Rachel Margolis & Mikko Myrskylä, 2011. "A Global Perspective on Happiness and Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 29-56, March.
    17. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2001. "Job bust, baby bust?: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 505-521.
    18. Diane J. Macunovich, 1995. "The Butz-Ward Fertility Model in the Light of More Recent Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(2), pages 229-255.
    19. Samuel Bentolila & Pierre Cahuc & Juan J. Dolado & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2012. "Two‐Tier Labour Markets in the Great Recession: France Versus Spain-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(562), pages 155-187, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:lde:journl:y:2017:i:87:p:97-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:col:000174:015709 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:1209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frank Kolesnik) or (Ilker Cakar). General contact details of provider: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.