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A natural experiment on job insecurity and fertility in France

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  • Andrew E. Clark
  • Anthony Lepinteur

Abstract

Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labour market. We here argue that it reduces fertility amongst the employed. The 1999 rise in the French Delalande tax, paid by large private firms when they laid off workers aged over 50, produced an exogenous rise in job insecurity for younger workers in these firms. A difference-in-differences analysis of French ECHP data reveals that this greater job insecurity for these under-50s significantly reduced their probability of having a new child by 3.9 percentage points. Reduced fertility is only found at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2020. "A natural experiment on job insecurity and fertility in France," CEP Discussion Papers dp1686, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1686
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2020. "Marriage as Insurance: Job Protection and Job Insecurity in France," PSE Working Papers halshs-02933888, HAL.
    2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark, 2021. "Children, unhappiness and family finances," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 625-653, April.
    3. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Academic Careers And Fertility Decisions," Working Papers 202101, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment protection; layoff tax; perceived job security; difference-in-differences; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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