IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepdps/dp1659.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic insecurity and the rise of the right

Author

Listed:
  • Walter Bossert
  • Andrew E. Clark
  • Conchita D'Ambrosio
  • Anthony Lepinteur

Abstract

Economic insecurity has attracted growing attention in social, academic and policy circles. However, there is no consensus as to its precise definition. Intuitively, economic insecurity is multi-faceted, making any comprehensive formal definition that subsumes all possible aspects extremely challenging. We propose a simplified approach, and characterize a class of individual economic-insecurity measures that are based on the time profile of economic resources. We then apply our economic-insecurity measure to data on political preferences. In US, UK and German panel data, and conditional on current economic resources, economic insecurity is associated with both greater political participation (support for a party or the intention to vote) and notably more support for parties on the right of the political spectrum. We in particular find that economic insecurity predicts greater support for both Donald Trump before the 2016 US Presidential election and the UK leaving the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Bossert & Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D'Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2019. "Economic insecurity and the rise of the right," CEP Discussion Papers dp1659, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1659.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nattavudh Powdthavee & Anke C. Plagnol & Paul Frijters & Andrew E. Clark, 2019. "Who Got the Brexit Blues? The Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(343), pages 471-494, July.
    2. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    3. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    4. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Liberini, Federica & Redoano, Michela & Proto, Eugenio, 2017. "Happy voters," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 41-57.
    7. Andrew E. Clark, 2018. "Four Decades of the Economics of Happiness: Where Next?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 245-269, June.
    8. Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno, 2017. "Demand and Supply of Populism," EIEF Working Papers Series 1703, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2017.
    9. Akay, Alpaslan & Bargain, Olivier B. & Elsayed, Ahmed, 2018. "Everybody's a Victim? Global Terror, Well-Being and Political Attitudes," IZA Discussion Papers 11597, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Blackorby, Charles & Bossert, Walter & Donaldson, David, 1997. "Birth-Date Dependent Population Ethics: Critical-Level Principles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 260-284, December.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Oswald, Andrew J. & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2008. "Does happiness adapt? A longitudinal study of disability with implications for economists and judges," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1061-1077, June.
    13. Andrew Sharpe & Lars Osberg, 2009. "New Estimates of the Index of Economic Well-being for Selected OECD Countries, 1981 - 2007," CSLS Research Reports 2009-11, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    14. Guiso, Luigi & Herrera, Helios & Morelli, Massimo & Sonno, Tommaso, 2018. "Populism: Demand and Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 11871, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser & Bryce A. Ward, 2006. "Myths and Realities of American Political Geography," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 119-144, Spring.
    17. Rohde, Nicholas & Tang, K.K. & Osberg, Lars & Rao, Prasada, 2016. "The effect of economic insecurity on mental health: Recent evidence from Australian panel data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 250-258.
    18. Smith, Trenton G. & Stillman, Steven & Craig, Stuart, 2013. "The U.S. Obesity Epidemic:New Evidence from the Economic Security Index," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151419, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Inglehart, Ronald F. & Norris, Pippa, 2016. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash," Working Paper Series 16-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    20. Clark, Andrew E., 2001. "What really matters in a job? Hedonic measurement using quit data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 223-242, May.
    21. Liberini, Federica & Oswald, Andrew J. & Proto, Eugenio & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Was Brexit triggered by the old and unhappy? Or by financial feelings?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 287-302.
    22. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2006. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 899-925, December.
    23. Bossert, Walter, 1990. "An axiomatization of the single-series Ginis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 82-92, February.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    25. repec:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i::p:s159-s176 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Lars Osberg, 2015. "How Should One Measure Economic Insecurity?," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2015/1, OECD Publishing.
    27. Nicholas Rohde & Kam Ki Tang & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2014. "Distributional Characteristics of Income Insecurity in the U.S., Germany, and Britain," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 159-176, May.
    28. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    29. A. R. Pah & J. Hagan & A. L. Jennings & A. Jain & K. Albrecht & A. J. Hockenberry & L. A. N. Amaral, 2017. "Economic insecurity and the rise in gun violence at US schools," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(2), pages 1-6, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Economic Insecurity and the Rise of the Right
      by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog on 2019-11-25 22:30:16

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 386-398, May.
    2. Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Giorgio Fabbri, 2025. "Economic Insecurity, Memory Effects and Allocations Choices," Working Papers 2025-03, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    3. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D'Ambrosio & Rong Zhu, 2021. "Living in the Shadow of the Past: Financial Profiles and Well‐Being," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 910-939, July.
    4. Stephen Drinkwater, 2021. "Brexit and the ‘left behind’: Job polarization and the rise in support for leaving the European Union," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(6), pages 569-588, November.
    5. Alessandro Gallo & Silvia Pacei, 2020. "Economic Insecurity in the Italian Macro-Regions," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 1-65, August.
    6. Belmonte, A & Pickard, H, 2022. "Safe at Last? LATE Effects of a Mass Immunization Campaign on Households’ Economic Insecurity," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 604, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Costanzo Ranci & Jason Beckfield & Laura Bernardi & Andrea Parma, 2021. "New Measures of Economic Insecurity Reveal its Expansion Into EU Middle Classes and Welfare States," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 539-562, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Walter Bossert & Andrew E Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Economic insecurity and political preferences," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 802-825.
    2. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2016. "Economic insecurity and variations in resources," Working Papers 422, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    3. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2021. "Inequality Aversion, Populism, and the Backlash against Globalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2857-2906, December.
    4. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    5. Albanese, Giuseppe & Barone, Guglielmo & de Blasio, Guido, 2022. "Populist voting and losers’ discontent: Does redistribution matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Belmonte, A & Pickard, H, 2022. "Safe at Last? LATE Effects of a Mass Immunization Campaign on Households’ Economic Insecurity," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 604, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Tito Boeri & Prachi Mishra & Chris Papageorgiou & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2018. "A Dialogue between a Populist and an Economist," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 191-195, May.
    8. Costa-Font, Joan & Ljunge, Martin, 2023. "Ideological spillovers across the Atlantic? Evidence from Trump's presidential election," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Barone, Guglielmo & Kreuter, Helena, 2021. "Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Mirko Draca & Carlo Schwarz, 2024. "How Polarised are Citizens? Measuring Ideology from the Ground up," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(661), pages 1950-1984.
    11. Eugenio Levi & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 833-875, October.
    12. Laura Barros & Manuel Santos Silva, 2019. "#EleNão: Economic crisis, the political gender gap, and the election of Bolsonaro," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 242, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    13. D’Ambrosio, Anna & Leombruni, Roberto & Razzolini, Tiziano, 2021. ""Fear Is the Path to the Dark Side". Electoral Results and the Workplace Safety of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 14322, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Federico Favaretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2022. "Populism, financial crises and banking policies: Economics and psychology," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 441-464, September.
    15. Tito Boeri & Prachi Mishra & Chris Papageorgiou & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Populism and Civil Society," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 863-895, October.
    16. Arnstein Aassve & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie, 2018. "Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1896, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Győző Gyöngyösi & Emil Verner, 2022. "Financial Crisis, Creditor‐Debtor Conflict, and Populism," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2471-2523, August.
    18. Gian Italo Bischi & Federico Favaretto & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera, 2022. "Long-term causes of populism," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 349-377, January.
    19. Jonas A. Gunnarsson & Gylfi Zoega, 2017. "East Versus West on the European Populism Scale," CESifo Working Paper Series 6663, CESifo.
    20. Georgios Kavetsos & Ichiro Kawachi & Ilias Kyriopoulos & Sotiris Vandoros, 2021. "The effect of the Brexit referendum result on subjective well‐being," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 707-731, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic index numbers; Insecurity; Political participation; Conservatism; Right-leaning political parties; Trump; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.