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Was Brexit Triggered by the Old and Unhappy? Or by Financial Feelings?

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  • Liberini, Federica
  • Oswald, Andrew
  • Proto, Eugenio
  • Redoano, Michela

Abstract

On 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom voted in favour of 'Brexit'. This paper is an attempt to understand why. It examines the micro-econometric predictors of anti-EU sentiment. The paper provides the first evidence for the idea that a key channel of influence was through a person's feelings about his or her own financial situation. By contrast, the paper finds relatively little regression-equation evidence for the widely discussed idea that Brexit was favoured by the old and the unhappy. The analysis shows that UK citizens' feelings about their incomes were a substantially better predictor of pro-Brexit views than their actual incomes. This seems an important message for economists, because the subject of economics has typically avoided the study of human feelings in favour of 'objective' data.

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  • Liberini, Federica & Oswald, Andrew & Proto, Eugenio & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Was Brexit Triggered by the Old and Unhappy? Or by Financial Feelings?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13439
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    1. Rita Faria’s journal round-up for 13th May 2019
      by Rita Faria in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2019-05-13 11:00:26

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    6. Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios & Guilló, María Dolores, 2021. "Identifying the Economic Determinants of Individual Voting Behaviour in UK General Elections," QM&ET Working Papers 21-2, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory.
    7. Hervy, Charlotte & Cavalli, Nicolo & Madia, Joan E. & Nicodemo, Catia, 2022. "Diverging mental health after Brexit: Evidence from a longitudinal survey," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    8. Goodhart, Charles A & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Follow-up and a Rejoinder," CEPR Discussion Papers 13752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Deole, Sumit S. & Huang, Yue, 2020. "Suffering and prejudice: Do negative emotions predict immigration concerns?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 644, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. O'Connor, Kelsey J., 2020. "The effect of immigration on natives’ well-being in the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 257-274.
    11. Amory Gethin & Clara Martínez-Toledano & Thomas Piketty, 2022. "Brahmin Left Versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948–2020," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(1), pages 1-48.
    12. Albanese, Giuseppe & Barone, Guglielmo & de Blasio, Guido, 2022. "Populist voting and losers’ discontent: Does redistribution matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Stephen Drinkwater & Colin Jennings, 2022. "The Brexit referendum and three types of regret," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 275-291, December.
    14. Pawel Dlotko & Lucy Minford & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "An Economic Topology of the Brexit vote," Papers 1909.03490, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    15. Francisco J. Areal, 2021. "The Role of Personality Traits, Cooperative Behaviour and Trust in Governments on the Brexit Referendum Outcome," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    16. Stephen Drinkwater, 2021. "Brexit and the ‘left behind’: Job polarization and the rise in support for leaving the European Union," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(6), pages 569-588, November.
    17. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Romiti, Agnese, 2021. "International Student Applications in the United Kingdom after Brexit," IZA Discussion Papers 14247, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment: a follow-up and a rejoinder," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100968, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Nils Braakmann, 2021. "Immigration Status Uncertainty and Mental Health—Evidence from Brexit," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 521-548, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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