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On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Claude Berrebi

    (RAND Corporation)

  • Esteban F. Klor

    (Department of Economics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel and Centre for Economic Policy Research)

Abstract

This article investigates the interaction between terror attacks and electoral outcomes in Israel. The authors analyze a dynamic model of reputation that captures the salient characteristics of this conflict. The equilibrium of the theoretical model generates two precise empirical predictions about the interaction between terrorism and electoral outcomes. First, the relative support for the right-wing party is expected to increase after periods with high levels of terrorism and to decrease after periods of relative calm. Second, the expected level of terrorism is higher when the left-wing party is in office than it is during the term of the right-wing party. The authors test these hypotheses by using a newly created data set on terrorist attacks in Israel between 1990 and 2003. The first hypothesis is strongly supported by data culled from public opinion polls about the Israeli electorate’s political preferences. The second theoretical hypothesis is strongly supported by the three Israeli governments to which the theory can be applied that served during the studied time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2006. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 899-925, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:50:y:2006:i:6:p:899-925
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "The Impact of Terrorism on the Defence Industry," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(307), pages 518-543, July.
    2. Paschalis Arvanitidis & Athina Economou & Christos Kollias, 2016. "Terrorism’s effects on social capital in European countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 231-250, December.
    3. Asongu, Simplice A. & Nwachukwu, Jacinta C., 2017. "The Impact of Terrorism on Governance in African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 253-270.
    4. Martin Gassebner & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin & Jochen O. Mierau, 2011. "Terrorism And Cabinet Duration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1253-1270, November.
    5. Javier Gardeazabal, 2010. "Vote Shares in Spanish General Elections as a Fractional Response to the Economy and Conflict," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 33, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi, 2007. "Attack Assignments in Terror Organizations and The Productivity of Suicide Bombers," NBER Working Papers 12910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Arye Hillman, 2007. "Economic and security consequences of supreme values," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 259-280, June.
    8. Akay, Alpaslan & Bargain, Olivier & Elsayed, Ahmed, 2018. "Everybody's a Victim? Global Terror, Well-Being and Political Attitudes," Working Papers in Economics 733, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    9. Javier Gardeazabal, 2011. "Terrorism, Economic Downturns and Elections," EUSECON Policy Briefing 4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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