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The struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds: Violence and public opinion in the Second Intifada

Author

Listed:
  • M. Daniele Paserman

    (Department of Economics, Boston University, NBER, CEPR and IZA)

  • Esteban F. Klor

    (Department of Economics, Hebrew University and CEPR)

  • Sami H. Miaari

    (University of Haifa and DIW)

  • David A. Jaeger

    (City University of New York Graduate Center, USA, and University of Cologne, Germany)

Abstract

This paper examines how violence influences the political preferences of an aggrieved constituency that is purportedly represented by militant factions. Using longitudinal public opinion poll micro data of the Palestinian population linked to data on fatalities from the Second Intifada, we find that although local Israeli violence discourages Palestinians from supporting moderate political positions, this “radicalization” is fleeting, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We do, however, find evidence suggesting that collateral violence affecting Palestinian civilians has a stronger effect on the populations' political preferences relative to individuals directly targeted by the Israeli military. In addition, we observe that major political events in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict have had a longer-term impact on political preferences. Individuals who were teenagers during the period of the Oslo negotiations tend to have relatively moderate preferences, while those who were teenagers during the First Intifada tend to be relatively radical.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Daniele Paserman & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari & David A. Jaeger, 2011. "The struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds: Violence and public opinion in the Second Intifada," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-047, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2011-047
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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