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The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada

  • Jaeger, David A
  • Klor, Esteban F
  • Miaari, Sami
  • Paserman, M. Daniele

This paper examines how violence in the Second Intifada influences Palestinian public opinion. Using micro data from a series of opinion polls linked to data on fatalities, we find that Israeli violence against Palestinians leads them to support more radical factions and more radical attitudes towards the conflict. This effect is temporary, however, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We also find some evidence that Palestinian fatalities lead to the polarization of the population and to increased disaffection and a lack of support for any faction. Geographically proximate Palestinian fatalities have a larger effect than those that are distant, while Palestinian fatalities in targeted killings have a smaller effect relative to other fatalities. Although overall Israeli fatalities do not seem to affect Palestinian public opinion, when we divide those fatalities by the different factions claiming responsibility for them, we find some evidence that increased Israeli fatalities are effective in increasing support for the faction that claimed them.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6793.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6793
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  1. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2007. "The Shape of Things to Come? Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," IZA Discussion Papers 2890, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2009. "Does Terrorism Work?," HiCN Working Papers 67, Households in Conflict Network.
  3. Jaeger, David A & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2005. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 5320, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Sendhil Mullainathan & Ebonya Washington, 2006. "Sticking with Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Voting," NBER Working Papers 11910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2005. "Israel, the Palestinian Factions, and the Cycle of Violence," Working Papers 23, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  6. Radha Iyengar & Jonathan Monten, 2008. "Is There an "Emboldenment" Effect? Evidence from the Insurgency in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 13839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David A. Jaeger & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari & M. Daniele Paserman, 2010. "Can Militants Use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada," NBER Working Papers 16475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2004. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Working Papers 859, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  13. Dmitri Romanov & Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2012. "Does Terrorism Demoralize? Evidence from Israel," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 79(313), pages 183-198, 01.
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  17. B. Peter Rosendorff & Todd Sandler, 2010. "Suicide Terrorism And The Backlash Effect," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5-6), pages 443-457.
  18. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
  19. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2010. "Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions," NBER Working Papers 16493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2009. "The Shape of Things to Come? On the Dynamics of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 4(4), pages 315-342, December.
  21. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  22. Eli Berman & David D. Laitin, 2008. "Religion, Terrorism and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model," NBER Working Papers 13725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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