IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecopol/v36y2024i2p901-927.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Terrorism, counter‐terrorism, and voting: The case of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • M. Akif Yardimci

Abstract

This paper empirically tests the impact of terrorism and counter‐terrorism on voting by focusing on the two 2015 general elections in Turkey ‐ and the 2011 general election. This period offers a unique case because, after the first election, the ongoing peace process between the incumbent party (AKP), the political party associated with the perpetrators (pro‐Kurdish political party, HDP), and the imprisoned leader of the terrorist organization (PKK) was canceled. Instead, terror attacks recurred and curfews were implemented as counter‐terrorism measures. This enables the impact of curfews and terror attacks on electoral outcomes to be analysed in a difference‐in‐differences setting. Terror attacks are estimated to reduce the incumbent's vote share by 3.2% points, while increasing the vote share of the party associated with the perpetrators by 3.6% points. Curfews are estimated to cancel out the impact of terror attacks in attacked municipalities and decrease the incumbent's vote share by 4.7% points in non‐attacked municipalities.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Akif Yardimci, 2024. "Terrorism, counter‐terrorism, and voting: The case of Turkey," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 901-927, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:36:y:2024:i:2:p:901-927
    DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12274
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecpo.12274?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaeger, David A. & Klor, Esteban F. & Miaari, Sami H. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2012. "The struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds: Violence and public opinion in the Second Intifada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 354-368.
    2. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "Does Terrorism Work?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1459-1510.
    3. Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2010. "Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 477-489, July.
    4. Pape, Robert A., 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(3), pages 343-361, August.
    5. Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 279-301, August.
    6. Gösser, Niklas & Moshgbar, Nima, 2020. "Smoothing time fixed effects," DICE Discussion Papers 343, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    7. Ismet Koc & Attila Hancioglu & Alanur Cavlin, 2008. "Demographic Differentials and Demographic Integration of Turkish and Kurdish Populations in Turkey," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(4), pages 447-457, August.
    8. Getmansky, Anna & Zeitzoff, Thomas, 2014. "Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 588-604, August.
    9. Ethan Bueno De Mesquita, 2005. "The Quality of Terror," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 515-530, July.
    10. Berrebi Claude, 2007. "Evidence about the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism among Palestinians," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 18-53, December.
    11. Jorge Gallego, 2018. "Civil conflict and voting behavior: Evidence from Colombia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(6), pages 601-621, November.
    12. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
    13. Roland Hodler & Dominic Rohner, 2012. "Electoral terms and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 181-193, January.
    14. B. Peter Rosendorff & Todd Sandler, 2004. "Too Much of a Good Thing?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(5), pages 657-671, October.
    15. Gassebner, Martin & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Mierau, Jochen O., 2008. "Terrorism and electoral accountability: One strike, you're out!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 126-129, July.
    16. Eli Berman, 2003. "Hamas, Taliban and the Jewish Underground: An Economist's View of Radical Religious Militias," NBER Working Papers 10004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ethan Bueno de Mesquita & Eric S. Dickson, 2007. "The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(2), pages 364-381, April.
    18. Siqueira, Kevin & Sandler, Todd, 2007. "Terrorist backlash, terrorism mitigation, and policy delegation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(9), pages 1800-1815, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elster, Yael, 2019. "Rockets and votes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 767-784.
    2. Jaeger, David A. & Klor, Esteban F. & Miaari, Sami H. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2012. "The struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds: Violence and public opinion in the Second Intifada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 354-368.
    3. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2014. "On the heterogeneity of terror," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-136.
    4. Sandeep Baliga & Tomas Sjostrom, 2012. "The Strategy of Manipulating Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2897-2922, October.
    5. Alessandro Belmonte, 2020. "Punishing or Rallying ‘Round the Flag? Heterogeneous Effects of Terrorism in South Tyrol," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 511, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    6. Jaeger, David A. & Klor, Esteban F. & Miaari, Sami H. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2012. "The struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds: Violence and public opinion in the Second Intifada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 354-368.
    7. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Alessandro Belmonte, 2022. "Punishing or rallying ‘round the flag? Heterogeneous effects of terrorism in South Tyrol," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 536-563, November.
    9. El-Attar, Mayssun, 2009. "Could Education Promote the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process?," IZA Discussion Papers 4447, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Haritz Garro, 2019. "Terrorism prevention with reelection concerns and valence competition," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(3), pages 330-369, July.
    11. Peri, Giovanni & Rees, Daniel I. & Smith, Brock, 2023. "Terrorism and political attitudes: Evidence from European social surveys," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Emine Arı & Reşat Bayer & Özge Kemahlıoğlu & Ece Kural, 2024. "Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: The role of local politics and governments," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(2), pages 263-278, March.
    13. Akay, Alpaslan & Bargain, Olivier & Elsayed, Ahmed, 2020. "Global terror, well-being and political attitudes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Michael McBride & Gary Richardson, 2012. "Stopping Suicide Attacks: Optimal Strategies and Unintended Consequences," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 413-429, October.
    15. Tiberiu Dragu, 2017. "On repression and its effectiveness," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(4), pages 599-622, October.
    16. Emilio Colombo & Valentina Rotondi & Luca Stanca, 2022. "The Day After the Bomb: Well-Being Effects of Terrorist Attacks in Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 115-132, February.
    17. Jorge Gallego, 2018. "Civil conflict and voting behavior: Evidence from Colombia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(6), pages 601-621, November.
    18. Gan Jin & Md Rafiul Karim & Günther G. Schulze, 2024. "The Stock Market Effects of Islamist versus Non-Islamist Terror," Discussion Paper Series 45 JEL Classification: D7, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Feb 2024.
    19. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "Does Terrorism Work?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1459-1510.
    20. David A. Jaeger & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari & M. Daniele Paserman, 2015. "Can Militants Use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(3), pages 528-549, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:36:y:2024:i:2:p:901-927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.