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The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada

  • Jaeger, David A.

    ()

    (CUNY Graduate Center)

  • Klor, Esteban F.

    ()

    (Hebrew University, Jerusalem)

  • Miaari, Sami H.

    ()

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • Paserman, M. Daniele

    ()

    (Boston University)

This paper examines how violence in the Second Intifada influences Palestinian public opinion. Using micro data from a series of opinion polls linked to data on fatalities, we find that Israeli violence against Palestinians leads them to support more radical factions and more radical attitudes towards the conflict. This effect is temporary, however, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We also find some evidence that Palestinian fatalities lead to the polarization of the population and to increased disaffection and a lack of support for any faction. Geographically proximate Palestinian fatalities have a larger effect than those that are distant, while Palestinian fatalities in targeted killings have a smaller effect relative to other fatalities. Although overall Israeli fatalities do not seem to affect Palestinian public opinion, when we divide those fatalities by the different factions claiming responsibility for them, we find some evidence that increased Israeli fatalities are effective in increasing support for the faction that claimed them.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3439.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Journal of Public Economics, 2012, 96 (3-4), 354-368
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3439
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  10. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2010. "Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions," NBER Working Papers 16493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jaeger, David A & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2006. "Israel, the Palestinian Factions and the Cycle of Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  14. David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2005. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," Working Papers 22, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  15. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
  16. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2007. "The Shape of Things to Come? Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," IZA Discussion Papers 2890, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
  18. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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  22. David A. Jaeger & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari & M. Daniele Paserman, 2010. "Can Militants Use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada," NBER Working Papers 16475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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