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The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict*

* This paper has been replicated

Author

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  • David A. Jaeger
  • M. Daniele Paserman

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict during the Second Intifada. Using data on the daily number of fatalities between September 2000 and January 2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of Granger causality from Palestinian to Israeli violence, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent using either the incidence or level of fatalities and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the level of time aggregation. We find no evidence that the Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in a predictable "tit-for-tat" cycle of violence. (JEL D74, H56, O17)

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2008. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1591-1604, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:4:p:1591-1604
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.4.1591
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
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    7. World Bank, 2003. "Twenty-Seven Months - Intifada, Closures, and Palestinian Economic Crisis : An Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 14614, The World Bank Group.
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    11. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
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    Replication

    This item has been replicated by:
  • Muhammad Asali & Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn & Michael Beenstock, 2017. "The cycle of violence in the Second Intifada: Causality in nonlinear vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1197-1205, September.

    • More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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    1. The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict (AER 2008) in ReplicationWiki

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