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Economic Uncertainty, Parental Selection and Children’s Educational Outcomes

Author

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  • Arnaud Chevalier

    (IZA; Royal Holloway, University of London; UCD Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin; ROA, Maastricht University; SFI, Copenhagen)

  • Olivier Marie

    (ROA, Maastricht University; CEP, London School of Economics, IZA; CESIfo, Munich)

Abstract

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germany experienced an unprecedented temporary drop in fertility driven by economic uncertainty. Using various educational measures, we show that the children born during this nativity slump perform worse from an early age onwards. Consistent with negative selection, mothers who gave birth in that period had worse observed personal characteristics. These children are also less likely to have grown up within stable family environment. Investigating underlying mechanisms reveals that parental educational input and emotional attachment were also lower for these children. Finally, sibling analysis enable us to reject time of birth effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Chevalier & Olivier Marie, 2015. "Economic Uncertainty, Parental Selection and Children’s Educational Outcomes," Working Papers 201506, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201506
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 386-398, May.
    2. Hjalmarsson, Randi & Mitrut, Andreea & Pop-Eleches, Cristian, 2021. "The impact of abortion on crime and crime-related behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Endrich, Marek, 2020. "A Window to the World: The long-term effect of Television on Hate Crime," ILE Working Paper Series 33, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    4. Ofer Malamud & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Miguel Urquiola, 2016. "Interactions Between Family and School Environments: Evidence on Dynamic Complementarities?," NBER Working Papers 22112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Azmat, Ghazala & Kaufmann, Katja Maria, 2021. "Formation of College Plans: Expected Returns, Preferences and Adjustment Process," IZA Discussion Papers 14351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Eibich, Peter & Siedler, Thomas, 2020. "Retirement, intergenerational time transfers, and fertility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Chevalier, Arnaud & Marie, Olivier, 2019. "Risky moms, risky kids? Fertility and crime after the fall of the wall," CEPR Discussion Papers 14251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Yi Chen & Yingfei Huang, 2020. "The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(35), pages 985-1038.
    9. Kyriopoulos, Ilias & Nikoloski, Zlatko & Mossialos, Elias, 2019. "Does economic recession impact newborn health? Evidence from Greece," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 386-398, May.
    11. Friehe, Tim & Müller, Helge & Neumeier, Florian, 2018. "The effect of Western TV on crime: Evidence from East Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 346-372.
    12. De Cao, Elisabetta & McCormick, Barry & Nicodemo, Catia, 2019. "Does Unemployment Worsen Babies' Health? A Tale of Siblings, Maternal Behaviour and Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 12568, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Otto Lenhart, 2017. "The Role of Economic Shocks on Health: Evidence from German Reunification," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(1), pages 275-296, July.
    14. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 018430, Universidad del Rosario.
    15. Lee, Soohyung & Orsini, Chiara, 2018. "Girls and Boys: Economic Crisis, Fertility, and Birth Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 11531, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Süssmuth, Bernd & Gawellek, Bastian & Koenings, Fabian, 2021. "Economics education, childhood socialization, and the transmission of allocation preferences," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    17. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2020. "Marriage as Insurance: Job Protection and Job Insecurity in France," Working Papers halshs-02933888, HAL.
    18. Andreas Thiemann, 2016. "How Does Maternal Pension Wealth Affect Family Old-Age Savings in Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1560, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Sebastian Becker & Hermann Buslei & Johannes Geyer & Peter Haan, 2021. "Employment Responses to Income Effect: Evidence from Pension Reform," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1941, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Beblo, Miriam & Görges, Luise, 2018. "On the nature of nurture. The malleability of gender differences in work preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 19-41.
    21. Friehe, Tim & Müller, Helge & Neumeier, Florian, 2020. "Media’s role in the making of a democrat: Evidence from East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 866-890.
    22. Soohyung Lee & Chiara Orsini, 2018. "Girls and boys: Economic crisis, fertility, and birth outcomes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1044-1063, November.
    23. Otto Lenhart, 2018. "More than just the Adoption of Western Capitalism? Time Use Changes in East Germany Following Reunification," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 306-328, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Parental selection; fertility; economic uncertainty; education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

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