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The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades

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  • John J Donohue
  • Steven Levitt

Abstract

Donohue and Levitt (2001) presented evidence that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s. That paper concluded with a strong out-of-sample prediction regarding the next two decades: “When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1% a year in crime over the next two decades.” Estimating parallel specifications to the original paper, but using the seventeen years of data generated after that paper was written, we find strong support for the prediction and the broad hypothesis, while illuminating some previously unrecognized patterns of crime and arrests. We estimate that overall crime fell 17.5% from 1998 to 2014 due to legalized abortion—a decline of 1% per year. From 1991 to 2014, the violent and property crime rates each fell by 50%. Legalized abortion is estimated to have reduced violent crime by 47% and property crime by 33% over this period, and thus can explain most of the observed crime decline.

Suggested Citation

  • John J Donohue & Steven Levitt, 2020. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 241-302.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:amlawe:v:22:y:2020:i:2:p:241-302.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aler/ahaa008
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    Cited by:

    1. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2023. "Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 84-107, March.
    2. Hjalmarsson, Randi & Mitrut, Andreea & Pop-Eleches, Cristian, 2021. "The impact of abortion on crime and crime-related behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    4. Gábor Hajdu & Tamás Hajdu, 2021. "The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children’s socioeconomic outcomes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Higney, Anthony & Hanley, Nick & Moro, Mirko, 2022. "The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Moody, Carlisle & Lott, John R., 2024. "Estimating the effect of concealed carry laws on murder: A response to Bondy, et al," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Luis Chanci & Subal C. Kumbhakar & Luis Sandoval, 2024. "Crime under-reporting in Bogotá: a spatial panel model with fixed effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(5), pages 2105-2136, May.
    8. Elena Doty & Thomas J. Kane & Tyler Patterson & Douglas O. Staiger, 2022. "What Do Changes in State Test Scores Imply for Later Life Outcomes?," NBER Working Papers 30701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chevalier, Arnaud & Marie, Olivier, 2024. "Risky moms, risky kids? fertility and crime after the fall of the wall," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    10. Lena Edlund & Cecilia Machado, 2019. "It's the Phone, Stupid: Mobiles and Murder," NBER Working Papers 25883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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