IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-05582254.html

Can Policies Affect Preferences? Evidence from random variation in abortion jurisprudence

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel L. Chen

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse)

  • Vardges Levonyan

    (UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich)

  • Susan Yeh

    (Charles River Associates Inc, Washington)

Abstract

Turning to the courts to vindicate rights has often led to resistance and subsequent acceptance. This paper investigates the effects of randomly assigned judges on abortion cases on subsequent legislative actions and shifts in public attitudes in the United States from 1971 to 2004. By examining comprehensive data from appellate and district abortion cases, our analysis reveals three primary findings. First, verdicts in abortion cases are significantly influenced by the judges' biographies. Second, precedents that oppose abortion tend to stimulate legislative actions aimed at restricting access to abortion services. Third, public opinion exhibits a temporary shift against legalized abortion following pro-abortion rulings, particularly in the context of elective abortions. These shifts suggest a pattern of initial resistance followed by gradual acceptance. In general terms, these results contribute towards identifying the origin of norms as a function of judicial decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Chen & Vardges Levonyan & Susan Yeh, 2025. "Can Policies Affect Preferences? Evidence from random variation in abortion jurisprudence," Post-Print hal-05582254, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05582254
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12586
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05582254v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-05582254v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjoe.12586?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam B. Badawi & Daniel L. Chen, 2017. "The Shareholder Wealth Effects of Delaware Litigation," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 287-326.
    2. Guido Kuersteiner & Ryo Okui, 2010. "Constructing Optimal Instruments by First-Stage Prediction Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 697-718, March.
    3. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00840901 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Waldfogel, Joel, 1995. "The Selection Hypothesis and the Relationship between Trial and Plaintiff Victory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 229-260, April.
    5. Bruno Crépon & Esther Duflo & Marc Gurgand & Roland Rathelot & Philippe Zamora, 2013. "Do Labor Market Policies have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 531-580.
    6. Maya Sen, 2015. "Is Justice Really Blind? Race and Reversal in US Courts," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S1), pages 187-229.
    7. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
    8. Caitlin Myers, 2024. "Forecasts for a post‐Roe America: The effects of increased travel distance on abortions and births," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 39-62, January.
    9. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & Alexander Strand, 2013. "Does Disability Insurance Receipt Discourage Work? Using Examiner Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of SSDI Receipt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1797-1829, August.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Matthew O. Jackson, 2017. "Social Norms and the Enforcement of Laws," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 245-295.
    11. Myers, Caitlin & Ladd, Daniel, 2020. "Did parental involvement laws grow teeth? The effects of state restrictions on minors’ access to abortion," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Anna Aizer & Joseph J. Doyle, 2015. "Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 759-803.
    13. Hoekstra, Valerie J., 2000. "The Supreme Court and Local Public Opinion," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 89-100, March.
    14. Jonathan P. Kastellec, 2013. "Racial Diversity and Judicial Influence on Appellate Courts," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 167-183, January.
    15. John J Donohue & Steven Levitt, 2020. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 241-302.
    16. Jeffrey R. Kling, 2006. "Incarceration Length, Employment, and Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 863-876, June.
    17. John J. Donohue III & Steven D. Levitt, 2001. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 379-420.
    18. Jonathan Gruber & Phillip Levine & Douglas Staiger, 1999. "Abortion Legalization and Child Living Circumstances: Who is the "Marginal Child"?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 263-291.
    19. Franklin, Charles H. & Kosaki, Liane C., 1989. "Republican Schoolmaster: The U.S. Supreme Court, Public Opinion, and Abortion," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 751-771, September.
    20. Jason M. Lindo & Caitlin Knowles Myers & Andrea Schlosser & Scott Cunningham, 2020. "How Far Is Too Far? New Evidence on Abortion Clinic Closures, Access, and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(4), pages 1137-1160.
    21. Blank, Rebecca M. & George, Christine C. & London, Rebecca A., 1996. "State abortion rates the impact of policies, providers, politics, demographics, and economic environment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 513-553, October.
    22. Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat & Jonathan Gruber & Phillip B. Levine & Douglas Staiger, 2009. "Abortion and Selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 124-136, February.
    23. Chen, Daniel L., 2024. "Priming ideology I: Why do presidential elections affect U.S. judges," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    24. Joseph Daniel Ura, 2014. "Backlash and Legitimation: Macro Political Responses to Supreme Court Decisions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 110-126, January.
    25. Christopher L. Foote & Christopher F. Goetz, 2008. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime: Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 407-423.
    26. Thomas Barrios & Rebecca Diamond & Guido W. Imbens & Michal Kolesár, 2012. "Clustering, Spatial Correlations, and Randomization Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(498), pages 578-591, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Daniel L. & Levonyan, Vardges & Yeh, Susan, 2016. "Policies Affect Preferences: Evidence from Random Variation in Abortion Jurisprudence," IAST Working Papers 16-58, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    2. Daniel L. Chen & Susan Fillin-Yeh, 2025. "How do rights revolutions occur? Free speech and the First Amendment," Post-Print hal-05330086, HAL.
    3. Chen, Daniel L. & Yeh, Susan, 2022. "How do rights revolutions occur? Free speech and the first amendment," TSE Working Papers 22-1396, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Clarke, Damian, 2023. "The Economics of Abortion Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 16395, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Chen, Daniel L. & Sethi, Jasmin, 2016. "Insiders, Outsiders, and Involuntary Unemployment: Sexual Harrassment Exacerbates Gender Inequality," TSE Working Papers 16-687, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Gábor Hajdu & Tamás Hajdu, 2021. "The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children’s socioeconomic outcomes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, March.
    7. Daniel L. Chen & Susan Yeh, 2023. "How do rights revolutions occur? Free speech and the first amendment," Working Papers hal-03921964, HAL.
    8. Chen, Daniel L. & Yeh, Susan, 2016. "How Do Rights Revolutions Occur? Free Speech and the First Amendment," TSE Working Papers 16-705, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Lahey, Joanna N. & Wanamaker, Marianne H., 2025. "Effects of restrictive abortion legislation on cohort mortality evidence from 19th century law variation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    10. Sarah Miller & Laura R. Wherry & Diana Greene Foster, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Being Denied an Abortion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 394-437, February.
    11. Chen, Daniel L. & Yeh, Susan, 2016. "Government Expropriation Increases Economic Growth and Racial Inequality: Evidence from Eminent Domain," IAST Working Papers 16-46, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    12. Arnaud Chevalier & Olivier Marie, 2013. "Economic Uncertainty, Parental Selection, and the Criminal Activity of the "Children of the Wall"," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 605, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    13. Chevalier, Arnaud & Marie, Olivier, 2024. "Risky moms, risky kids? fertility and crime after the fall of the wall," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    14. Libertad González & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Natalia Nollenberger & Judit Vall Castello, 2018. "The Effect of Abortion Legalization on Fertility, Marriage and Long-term Outcomes for Women," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2018-08, FEDEA.
    15. Sølvsten, Mikkel, 2020. "Robust estimation with many instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 495-512.
    16. Whitaker, Stephan, 2011. "The impact of legalized abortion on high school graduation through selection and composition," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-246, April.
    17. Martha Bailey & Olga Malkova & Zoë M. McLaren, 2017. "Does Parents' Access to Family Planning Increase Children's Opportunities? Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X," Working Papers 2017-083, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    18. Piette Durrance, Christine & Wang, Yang & Wolfe, Barbara, 2025. "Abortion access and child protective services involvement," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Arni, Patrick & Schiprowski, Amelie, 2019. "Job search requirements, effort provision and labor market outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 65-88.
    20. Hjalmarsson, Randi & Mitrut, Andreea & Pop-Eleches, Cristian, 2021. "The impact of abortion on crime and crime-related behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05582254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.