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Forecasts for a post‐Roe America: The effects of increased travel distance on abortions and births

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  • Caitlin Myers

Abstract

I compile novel data measuring county‐level travel distances to abortion facilities and resident abortion rates from 2009 through 2020. Using these data, I implement a difference‐in‐difference research design measuring the effects of driving distance to the nearest abortion facility on abortions and births. The results indicate large but diminishing effects: an increase from 0 to 100 miles is estimated to reduce abortion rates by 19.4% and increase birth rates by 2.2%, while the next 100 miles reduces abortions by an additional 12.8% and increases births by an additional 1.6%. Based on this evidence, I forecast the effects of post‐Roe abortion bans on abortion rates by county, state, and region. In a scenario in which total abortion bans take effect in 24 states, about one‐quarter of residents seeking abortions are predicted to become trapped by distance and about three‐quarters of those who are trapped are predicted to give birth as a result.

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  • Caitlin Myers, 2024. "Forecasts for a post‐Roe America: The effects of increased travel distance on abortions and births," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 39-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:43:y:2024:i:1:p:39-62
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.22524
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273, January.
    2. Myers, Caitlin & Ladd, Daniel, 2020. "Did parental involvement laws grow teeth? The effects of state restrictions on minors’ access to abortion," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Sarah Miller & Laura R. Wherry & Diana Greene Foster, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Being Denied an Abortion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 394-437, February.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
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    7. Levine, Phillip B., 2003. "Parental involvement laws and fertility behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 861-878, September.
    8. Jason M. Lindo & Caitlin Knowles Myers & Andrea Schlosser & Scott Cunningham, 2020. "How Far Is Too Far? New Evidence on Abortion Clinic Closures, Access, and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(4), pages 1137-1160.
    9. Myers, Caitlin Knowles, 2021. "Cooling off or Burdened? The Effects of Mandatory Waiting Periods on Abortions and Births," IZA Discussion Papers 14434, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
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    12. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    13. Grace Arnold, 2022. "The impact of targeted regulation of abortion providers laws on abortions and births," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1443-1472, October.
    14. Theodore J. Joyce & Robert Kaestner & Jason Ward, 2020. "The Impact of Parental Involvement Laws on the Abortion Rate of Minors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 323-346, February.
    15. Caitlin Knowles Myers, 2017. "The Power of Abortion Policy: Reexamining the Effects of Young Women’s Access to Reproductive Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2178-2224.
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