IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwwuw/wuwp332.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Security and Fertility: Evidence from the Mincome Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Tuna Dökmeci

    (Department of Economics, European University Institute)

  • Carla Rainer

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Alyssa Schneebaum

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

Using experimental data, this paper analyzes the relationship between households' economic security and their fertility decisions for low-income households. Between 1974 and 1977, a randomized controlled trial was conducted in Manitoba, Canada in which the treatment groups received differing levels of guaranteed annual income. All of the program participants were low-income households. We find positive effects of the program on the probability of child birth that range between 7 to 10 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuna Dökmeci & Carla Rainer & Alyssa Schneebaum, 2023. "Economic Security and Fertility: Evidence from the Mincome Experiment," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp332, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp332
    Note: PDF Document
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.wu.ac.at/ws/portalfiles/portal/35832611/WP332.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Itay Saporta-Eksten, 2018. "Children, Time Allocation, and Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(S1), pages 73-115.
    2. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    3. Yvan St.-Pierre & Philip Merrigan, 1998. "An econometric and neoclassical analysis of the timing and spacing of births in Canada from 1950 to 1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 29-51.
    4. Annalisa Busetta & Daria Mendola & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(8), pages 185-218.
    5. Regina T. Riphahn & Frederik Wiynck, 2017. "Fertility effects of child benefits," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1135-1184, October.
    6. Douglas E. Hyatt & William J. Milne, 1991. "Can Public Policy Affect Fertility?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(1), pages 77-85, March.
    7. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    8. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(28), pages 835-852.
    9. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    10. Robert Mcnown & Cristóbal Ridao-cano, 2004. "The Effect of Child Benefit Policies on Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation in Canada," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 237-254, April.
    11. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    12. Chris Riddell & W. Craig Riddell, 2024. "Welfare versus Work under a Negative Income Tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver, and Manitoba Income Maintenance Experiments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 427-467.
    13. Evelyn L. Forget, 2011. "The Town with No Poverty: The Health Effects of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income Field Experiment," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 37(3), pages 283-305, September.
    14. Michael C. Keeley & Philip K. Robins, 1980. "Experimental Design, the Conlisk-Watts Assignment Model, and the Proper Estimation of Behavioral Response," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(4), pages 480-498.
    15. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2013. "Financial Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-20, March.
    16. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    17. Michael C. Keeley, 1980. "The Effects of Negative Income Tax Programs on Fertility," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(4), pages 675-706.
    18. Melissa S. Kearney & Riley Wilson, 2018. "Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 678-690, October.
    19. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. repec:uwp:jhriss:v:29:y:1994:i: is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
    22. Raute, Anna, 2019. "Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 203-222.
    23. Michael F. Lovenheim & Kevin J. Mumford, 2013. "Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 464-475, May.
    24. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction," Post-Print hal-02081826, HAL.
    25. Michaela R. Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    26. Hill,Ruth & Tsehaye,Eyasu, 2018. "Growth, safety nets and poverty : assessing progress in Ethiopia from 1996 to 2011," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8380, The World Bank.
    27. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1984. "An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 852-874, October.
    28. Tom S. Vogl, 2016. "Differential Fertility, Human Capital, and Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 365-401.
    29. Jennifer Van Hook & Claire Altman, 2013. "Using Discrete-Time Event History Fertility Models to Simulate Total Fertility Rates and Other Fertility Measures," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(4), pages 585-610, August.
    30. Jose Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal & Jose Alberto Molina, 2022. "The gender gap in time allocation," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 497-497, July.
    31. Junsen Zhang & Jason Quan & Peter van Meerbergen, 1994. "The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 181-201.
    32. Deniz D. Karaman Örsal & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    33. Lonnie W. Aarssen, 2005. "Why Is Fertility Lower in Wealthier Countries? The Role of Relaxed Fertility‐Selection," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(1), pages 113-126, March.
    34. Sommer, Kamila, 2016. "Fertility choice in a life cycle model with idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 27-38.
    35. Saud Choudhry & Derek Hum, 1995. "Graduated work incentives and how they affect marital stability: the Canadian evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 367-371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rannveig Kaldager Hart & Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Wookun Kim, 2023. "Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 10690, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abebe HAILEMARIAM, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    2. Libertad González & Sofia Karina Trommlerová, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 783-818.
    3. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_347, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Dimico, Arcangelo, 2024. "The Effect of Abortion Policies on Fertility and Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa," QBS Working Paper Series 2024/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    6. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Pan, Jiun-Nan & Yang, Yan-Jie, 2020. "The impact of economic uncertainty on the decision of fertility: Evidence from Taiwan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. González, Libertad & Trommlerová, Sofia, 2022. "Cash transfers before pregnancy and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    10. Chiara L. Comolli & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Spread-ing uncertainty, shrinking birth rates," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_08, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    11. Shoumitro Chatterjee & Tom S. Vogl, 2016. "Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run," Working Papers sc_tv_growth_fertility.pd, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    12. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2016. "Comparative advantage, international trade, and fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 48-66.
    13. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1126, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    14. Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 386-398, May.
    15. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    16. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    17. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    18. Arianna Gatta & Francesco Mattioli & Letizia Mencarini & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: Stability or Resilience?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    19. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    20. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; economic security; policy analysis; guaranteed annual income; negative income tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Department of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.