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Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

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  • Dahl, Gordon B.

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Lu, Runjing

    (University of Alberta)

  • Mullins, William

    (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahl, Gordon B. & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," IZA Discussion Papers 14948, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14948
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    Cited by:

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    3. Adam Ka-Lok Cheung & Lake Lui, 2024. "The Personal is Political: Political Attitudes, Affective Polarization and Fertility Preferences in Hong Kong," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Bonaparte, Yosef & Khalaf, Sarah & Korniotis, George M., 2023. "Financial decisions of minorities post-2008," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; partisanship; elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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