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Does Partisanship Shape Investor Beliefs? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  • J Anthony Cookson
  • Joseph E Engelberg
  • William Mullins
  • Hui Chen

Abstract

We use party-identifying language—like “liberal media” and “MAGA”—to identify Republican users on the investor social platform StockTwits. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that partisan Republicans remain relatively unfazed in their beliefs about equities during the COVID-19 pandemic, while other users become considerably more pessimistic. In cross-sectional tests, we find Republicans become relatively more optimistic about stocks that suffered the most during the COVID-19 crisis, but more pessimistic about Chinese stocks. Finally, stocks with the greatest partisan disagreement on StockTwits have significantly more trading in the broader market, explaining 28% of the increase in stock turnover during the pandemic.Authors have furnished data and an Internet Appendix, which are available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

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  • J Anthony Cookson & Joseph E Engelberg & William Mullins & Hui Chen, 0. "Does Partisanship Shape Investor Beliefs? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 863-893.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:10:y::i:4:p:863-893.
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    2. Budi Setiawan & Marwa Ben Abdallah & Maria Fekete-Farkas & Robert Jeyakumar Nathan & Zoltan Zeman, 2021. "GARCH (1,1) Models and Analysis of Stock Market Turmoil during COVID-19 Outbreak in an Emerging and Developed Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Cookson, J. Anthony & Fos, Vyacheslav & Niessner, Marina, 2021. "Does Disagreement Facilitate Informed Trading? Evidence from Activist Investors," SocArXiv q8xvc, Center for Open Science.
    4. Bernstein, Asaf & Billings, Stephen B. & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2022. "Partisan residential sorting on climate change risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 989-1015.
    5. Sami Diaf & Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Ida Rockenbach, 2020. "Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 202001, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    6. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    7. Diaf, Sami & Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Rockenbach, Ida, 2022. "Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions based on text mining techniques," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Cookson, J. Anthony & izhakian, yehuda, 2022. "Do I Really Want to Hear The News? Public Information Arrival and Investor Beliefs," SocArXiv ud7yw, Center for Open Science.
    9. Mahmoudi, Nader & Docherty, Paul & Melia, Adrian, 2022. "Firm-level investor sentiment and corporate announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Waldhof, Gabi & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2023. "Understanding moral narratives as drivers of polarization about genetically engineered crops," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 78, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    11. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    12. Liao Xu & Jilong Chen & Xuan Zhang & Jing Zhao, 2021. "COVID‐19, public attention and the stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4741-4756, September.
    13. Xu, Liao & Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Limited investor attention and biased reactions to information: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Engelberg, Joseph E. & Guzman, Jorge & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Entrepreneurship," SocArXiv qhs6j, Center for Open Science.
    15. Mehmet Ali Balcı & Larissa M. Batrancea & Ömer Akgüller & Lucian Gaban & Mircea-Iosif Rus & Horia Tulai, 2022. "Fractality of Borsa Istanbul during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-33, July.
    16. Dawn Yi Lin Chow & Andreas Petrou & Andreas Procopiou, 2023. "A Perspective on the Influence of National Corporate Governance Institutions and Government’s Political Ideology on the Speed to Lockdown as a Means of Protection Against Covid-19," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 185(3), pages 611-628, July.
    17. Xu, Liao & Xue, Mingqi & Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Yang, 2023. "Heterogeneously informed trading and the stock market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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