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Election and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

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Listed:
  • Kim, Dongyoung
  • Kim, Young-Il
  • Rho, Haedong

Abstract

This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Dongyoung & Kim, Young-Il & Rho, Haedong, 2025. "Election and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 126661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:126661
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    2. Guirola, Luis, 2025. "Economic expectations under the shadow of party polarization: Evidence from 135 government changes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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