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Election and Subjective Well-Being:Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

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  • Dongyoung Kim
  • Young-Il Albert Kim
  • Haedong Aiden Rho

Abstract

This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor.

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  • Dongyoung Kim & Young-Il Albert Kim & Haedong Aiden Rho, 2025. "Election and Subjective Well-Being:Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election," Papers 2511.04912, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04912
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    1. Guirola, Luis, 2025. "Economic expectations under the shadow of party polarization: Evidence from 135 government changes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
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