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Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Gordon Dahl
  • Runjing Lu
  • William Mullins

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2021. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," NBER Working Papers 29058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29058
    Note: CH EH LS PE POL
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    1. repec:osf:socarx:qhs6j_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guirola, Luis, 2025. "Economic expectations under the shadow of party polarization: Evidence from 135 government changes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Dagostino, Ramona & Gao, Janet & Ma, Pengfei, 2023. "Partisanship in loan pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    4. W. Ben Mccartney & John Orellana‐Li & Calvin Zhang, 2024. "Political Polarization Affects Households' Financial Decisions: Evidence from Home Sales," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(2), pages 795-841, April.
    5. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clots-Figueras, Irma & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2021. "Religion and abortion: The role of politician identity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Kim, Dongyoung & Kim, Young-Il & Rho, Haedong, 2025. "Election and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 126661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Heather M. Rackin & Christina M. Gibson-Davis & Courtney E. Williams & Dustin Hughes & Seunghwan Yoo, 2025. "Partisan Divergence in Fertility Change Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Florida," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(5), pages 1-38, October.
    8. Gaia Dossi & Marta Morando, 2025. "Polarized Technologies," CEP Discussion Papers dp2116, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Adam Ka-Lok Cheung & Lake Lui, 2024. "The Personal is Political: Political Attitudes, Affective Polarization and Fertility Preferences in Hong Kong," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-23, April.
    10. Bonaparte, Yosef & Khalaf, Sarah & Korniotis, George M., 2023. "Financial decisions of minorities post-2008," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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