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Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility

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  • Rannveig Kaldager Hart
  • Janna Bergsvik
  • Agnes Fauske
  • Wookun Kim

Abstract

This chapter reviews the literature on the causal effects of policies on fertility. It focuses on evidence from experiments and quasi-experiments in low fertility contexts, including studies from Europe, Northern America, Oceania and Asia. Making no a priori restrictions on policy type, the review encompasses evaluations of parental leave, childcare, health insurance, and financial incentives such as child transfers. Childcare expansions increase completed fertility. Financial incentives had positive effects on fertility across contexts, both in the short and long run. Expansions of parental leave rights in Central Europe, and introduction of parental leave in the U.S., also had positive effects. Distributional effects of these policies are very different, with parental leave compensation benefiting high-earning couples, while expansions of child care programs have potential to reduce social inequalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Rannveig Kaldager Hart & Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Wookun Kim, 2023. "Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 10690, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10690
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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