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Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs tempo effects

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Parent
  • Ling Wang

Abstract

Using inter-jurisdictional differences in the implementation of the Family Allowance Program in Canada in the mid-1970s, this paper first shows that Quebec families with two or more children prior to being exposed to the program responded quite strongly to the added incentives in the short run relative to women in other Canadian provinces. Tracking down the cohorts across Censuses, we find that the same group of Quebec families subsequently showed a decrease in fertility relative to the rest of Canada, leaving ultimate family size unaffected. These results are consistent with the program having generated only a timing effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Parent & Ling Wang, 2007. "Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs tempo effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 371-400, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:40:y:2007:i:2:p:371-400
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    2. Michael F. Lovenheim & Kevin J. Mumford, 2010. "Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market Boom and Bust," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1228, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    3. Bishop Kelly C. & Mac Donald Diana E., 2022. "The Effect of Paying Parents to Adopt: Evidence from Minnesota's Foster-Care System," Working Papers 2022-01, Banco de México.
    4. Choo, Dahae & Jales, Hugo, 2021. "Childbearing and the distribution of the reservation price of fertility: The case of the Korean baby bonus program," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Rannveig Kaldager Hart & Taryn A. Galloway, 2023. "Universal Transfers, Tax Breaks and Fertility: Evidence from a Regional Reform in Norway," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-32, June.
    6. Shelly Lundberg & Aloysius Siow, 2017. "Canadian contributions to family economics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1304-1323, December.
    7. Yonzan, Nishant & Timilsina, Laxman & Kelly, Inas Rashad, 2024. "Economic incentives surrounding fertility: Evidence from Alaska’s permanent fund dividend," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Xiaoling Ang, 2015. "The Effects of Cash Transfer Fertility Incentives and Parental Leave Benefits on Fertility and Labor Supply: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 263-288, June.
    9. Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2021. "Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 913-964, December.
    10. Rannveig Hart & Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Wookun Kim, 2023. "Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility," Departmental Working Papers 2309, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    11. Naidoo, Jesse, 2023. "Fertility subsidies can have ambiguous effects on birth timing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    12. Naidoo, Jesse, 2022. "Marginal Incentives for Birth Spacing," OSF Preprints q9t7u, Center for Open Science.
    13. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-1628, June.
    14. Natalie Malak & Md Mahbubur Rahman & Terry A. Yip, 2019. "Baby bonus, anyone? Examining heterogeneous responses to a pro-natalist policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1246, October.
    15. Elmallakh, Nelly, 2021. "Fertility, Family Policy, and Labor Supply: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from France," GLO Discussion Paper Series 984, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Rannveig K. Hart, 2020. "Effects of policy on fertility. A systematic review of (quasi)experiments," Discussion Papers 922, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. Gema Lax-Martinez & Marco Le Moglie & Matteo Sandi, 2025. "Educated to Be Mothers? School Reform and Demographic Backlash," CESifo Working Paper Series 12251, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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