Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment
One of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. We revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis. We do not find strong evidence to justify the model specification from the original paper. Moreover, even if the original specfication is appropriate, we show that the Whittington et al. results are not robust to more general measures of child tax benefits. While we do not find evidence that child tax benefits affect the level of fertility, we find some evidence of a short-run fertility response that occurs with a two-year lag.
|Date of creation:||May 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-28, June.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.orgEmail:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000.
"Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-64, October.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,82, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Daniel Parent & Ling Wang, 2007. "Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs tempo effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 371-400, May.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
- Kevin Milligan, 2005.
"Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
- Kevin Milligan, 2002. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," NBER Working Papers 8845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011.
"Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-28, June.
- Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2007.
"A simple modification to improve the finite sample properties of Ng and Perron's unit root tests,"
Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 12-19, January.
- Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2006. "A Simple Modification to Improve the Finite Sample Properties of Ng and Perron’s Unit Root Tests," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Leslie A. Whittington & James Alm & H. Elizabeth Peters, .
"Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
89-6, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Whittington, Leslie A & Alm, James & Peters, H Elizabeth, 1990. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 545-56, June.
- Whittington, L.A. & Peters, H.E., 1989. "Fertility And The Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy In The United States," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 89-6, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2007. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 705-739.
- Junsen Zhang & Jason Quan & Peter van Meerbergen, 1994. "The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 181-201.
- Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2007.
"New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 188-224, 03.
- Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton , David, 2006. "New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2006:3, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Eissa, Nada & Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 2004. "Taxes and the labor market participation of married couples: the earned income tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1931-1958, August.
- Bruce D. Meyer & Dan T. Rosenbaum, 2001.
"Welfare, The Earned Income Tax Credit, And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 116(3), pages 1063-1114, August.
- Bruce D. Meyer & Dan T. Rosenbaum, 1998. "Welfare, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers," JCPR Working Papers 32, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Bruce D. Meyer & Dan T. Rosenbaum, 1999. "Welfare, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers," NBER Working Papers 7363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
- Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment (AER 2011) in ReplicationWiki
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.