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Guaranteed Minimum Income and Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Pio Dachille
  • Maria De Paola
  • Roberto Nisticò

Abstract

We study the fertility effects of guaranteed minimum income (MI) programs using Italy's Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), a national income floor introduced in 2019. Using administrative social security microdata and a Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that the RdC had no aggregate effect on fertility but increased childbearing by 18% over two years in Southern Italy, where economic insecurity is higher and gender norms more traditional. The effect appears driven not only by higher income but also by greater economic stability. These results suggest that MI schemes-though not designed with pronatalist intent-can shape fertility in economically disadvantaged settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Pio Dachille & Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò, 2025. "Guaranteed Minimum Income and Fertility," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2588, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2588
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    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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