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A Neoclassical and Econometric analysis of the Timing and Spacing of Births in Canada from 1950 to 1990

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Ce texte présente les estimations d'un modèle néoclassique de forme réduite de la détermination des naissances canadiennes depuis 1950. La technique économétrique utilisée est adaptée au caractère dynamique du phénomène de la fécondité en plus d'intégrer des facettes originales par rapport aux études traditionnelles dans ce domaine. Nous trouvons considérablement de support empirique au modèle néoclassique. De plus, nous trouvons que la modélisation de facteurs non-observables d'hétérogénéité est très importante dans la caractérisation du phénomène des naissances au Canada. Cependant, notre modèle révèle des lacunes du point de vue d'une explication globale des chutes du taux de fécondité des années récentes. This paper estimates a reduced form neoclassical model of Canadian fertility dynamics using an econometric technique that integrates several features not usually found in the demographic and economic literature. We find considerable support for the neoclassical model. We also find that correlated unobservables and parity stopping effects play an important role in Canadian fertility dynamics. However, we fail to totally characterize the important drop in the fertility rate that took place in the sixties and seventies.

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  • Philip Merrigan & Yvan St-Pierre, 1995. "A Neoclassical and Econometric analysis of the Timing and Spacing of Births in Canada from 1950 to 1990," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 9501, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:cre:uqamwp:9501
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    Cited by:

    1. Hippolyte D'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory," PSE Working Papers halshs-01452846, HAL.
    2. C. Chu & Seik Kim & Wen-Jen Tsay, 2014. "Coresidence With Husband’s Parents, Labor Supply, and Duration to First Birth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 185-204, February.
    3. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    4. Michael S. Rendall & Olivia Ekert-Jaffé & Heather Joshi & Kevin Lynch & Rémi Mougin, 2009. "Universal versus Economically Polarized Change in Age at First Birth: A French-British Comparison," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(1), pages 89-115.
    5. Lien, Hsien-Ming & Wang, Ping, 2016. "The timing of childbearing: The role of human capital and personal preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 247-264.
    6. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2016. "Comparative advantage, international trade, and fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 48-66.
    7. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    8. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(23), pages 691-728, February.
    9. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters,in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2011. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances and Social Security," Working Papers hal-00612613, HAL.
    11. Arntz, Melanie & Gathmann, Christina, 2014. "Permanent Changes in the Wage Structure and the East German Fertility Crisis," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100464, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Bloemen, Hans & Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Female labor market transitions and the timing of births: a simultaneous analysis of the effects of schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 593-620, December.
    13. Eschelbach Martina, 2015. "Family Culture and Fertility Outcomes – Evidence from American Siblings," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 246-267, June.
    14. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    15. Hippolyte D'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01883583, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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