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An econometric and neoclassical analysis of the timing and spacing of births in Canada from 1950 to 1990

Author

Listed:
  • Yvan St.-Pierre

    (Center for the Analysis of Cost Effective Care, Montreal General Hospital, Livingstone Hall, 1650 Cedar Avenue, Montre´al, Canada H3G 1A4)

  • Philip Merrigan

    (De´partement des Sciences E´conomiques, UQAM and Center for Research on Economic Fluctuations and Employment CP 8888, Succursale "Centre-Ville", Montre´al, Canada H3C 3P8)

Abstract

This paper estimates a reduced form neoclassical model of Canadian fertility dynamics using an econometric technique that integrates several features not usually found in the demographic and economic literature. We find considerable support for the neoclassical model. We also find that correlated unobservables and parity stopping effects play an important role in Canadian fertility dynamics as well as other socio-demographic features of Canadian women. However, we fail to totally characterize the important drops in the fertility rate that took place for this era.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvan St.-Pierre & Philip Merrigan, 1998. "An econometric and neoclassical analysis of the timing and spacing of births in Canada from 1950 to 1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 29-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:11:y:1998:i:1:p:29-51
    Note: Received: 2 May 1996 / Accepted: 27 March 1997
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    2. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    3. C. Chu & Seik Kim & Wen-Jen Tsay, 2014. "Coresidence With Husband’s Parents, Labor Supply, and Duration to First Birth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 185-204, February.
    4. Ager, Philipp & Brueckner, Markus & Herz, Benedikt, 2017. "Structural Change and the Fertility Transition in the American South," Discussion Papers on Economics 6/2017, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    5. Daniel Parent & Ling Wang, 2007. "Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs tempo effects," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 371-400, May.
    6. Michael S. Rendall & Olivia Ekert‐Jaffé & Heather Joshi & Kevin Lynch & Rémi Mougin, 2009. "Universal versus Economically Polarized Change in Age at First Birth: A French–British Comparison," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(1), pages 89-115, March.
    7. Lien, Hsien-Ming & Wang, Ping, 2016. "The timing of childbearing: The role of human capital and personal preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 247-264.
    8. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2016. "Comparative advantage, international trade, and fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 48-66.
    9. Helu Jiang & Hsien-Ming Lien & Yin-Chi Wang & ping wang, 2019. "Timing of the Birth: the Role of Productivity Loss and Income Security," 2019 Meeting Papers 590, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    11. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Education, Labour, and the Demographic Consequences of Birth Postponement in Europe," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01452823, HAL.
    12. Dökmeci, Tuna & Rainer, Carla & Schneebaum, Alyssa, 2023. "Economic Security and Fertility: Evidence from the Mincome Experiment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 332, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    13. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Arntz, Melanie & Gathmann, Christina, 2014. "Permanent Changes in the Wage Structure and the East German Fertility Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100464, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Bloemen, Hans & Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Female labor market transitions and the timing of births: a simultaneous analysis of the effects of schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 593-620, December.
    16. Eschelbach Martina, 2015. "Family Culture and Fertility Outcomes – Evidence from American Siblings," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 246-267, June.
    17. Tom Kornstad & Marit Rønsen, 2018. "Women’s Wages and Fertility Revisited Evidence from Norway," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 491-518, October.
    18. Kenneth Troske & Alexandru Voicu, 2013. "The effect of the timing and spacing of births on the level of labor market involvement of married women," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 483-521, August.
    19. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    20. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(23), pages 691-728.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life-cycle · fertility · multiple spell hazards · non-parametric · heterogeneity;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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