IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/clefwp/36.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Welfare versus work under a negative income tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver and Manitoba income maintenance experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Riddell, Chris
  • Riddell, William Craig

Abstract

The Income Maintenance Experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a Basic Income. Proponents viewed a Negative Income Tax as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives and reduced poverty. However, existing labor supply estimates for single parents are uniformly negative. We reassess the experimental evidence and find randomization failure in two NITs (Gary and Seattle). In Denver and Manitoba, we find a positive labor supply response for those on welfare prior to random assignment. Our results provide strong evidence that a NIT can increase work activity among single parents on welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Riddell, Chris & Riddell, William Craig, 2021. "Welfare versus work under a negative income tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver and Manitoba income maintenance experiments," CLEF Working Paper Series 36, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:clefwp:36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/235862/1/1764173295.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
    2. Orley Ashenfelter & Kirk Doran & Bruce Schaller, 2010. "A Shred of Credible Evidence on the Long‐run Elasticity of Labour Supply," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 637-650, October.
    3. Michael C. Keeley & Philip K. Robins, 1980. "Experimental Design, the Conlisk-Watts Assignment Model, and the Proper Estimation of Behavioral Response," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(4), pages 480-498.
    4. Widerquist, Karl, 2005. "A failure to communicate: what (if anything) can we learn from the negative income tax experiments?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 49-81, February.
    5. John Fitzgerald & Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1998. "An Analysis of Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 251-299.
    6. Charles Murray, 2016. "In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 886642, September.
    7. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S. Welfare Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 119-140, Summer.
    8. repec:pri:indrel:dsp01rv042t06t is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hum, Derek & Simpson, Wayne, 1993. "Economic Response to a Guaranteed Annual Income: Experience from Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 263-296, January.
    10. Ashenfelter, Orley & Plant, Mark W, 1990. "Nonparametric Estimates of the Labor-Supply Effects of Negative Income Tax Programs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 396-415, January.
    11. Greenberg, David & Moffitt, Robert & Friedmann, John, 1981. "Underreporting and Experimental Effects on Work Effort: Evidence from the Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 581-589, November.
    12. Ioana Marinescu, 2018. "No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs," NBER Working Papers 24337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. David Cesarini & Erik Lindqvist & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Robert Östling, 2017. "The Effect of Wealth on Individual and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Swedish Lotteries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3917-3946, December.
    14. Robert M. Hutchens, 1978. "Changes in AFDC Tax Rates, 1967-1971," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 13(1), pages 60-74.
    15. Philip K. Robins, 1985. "A Comparison of the Labor Supply Findings from the Four Negative Income Tax Experiments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(4), pages 567-582.
    16. Wayne Simpson & Greg Mason & Ryan Godwin, 2017. "The Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment: Lessons Learned 40 Years Later," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 43(1), pages 85-104, March.
    17. Orley Ashenfelter & Kirk Doran & Bruce Schaller, 2010. "A Shred of Credible Evidence on the Long‐run Elasticity of Labour Supply," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 637-650, October.
    18. Greenberg, David & Halsey, Harlan, 1983. "Systematic Misreporting and Effects of Income Maintenance Experiments on Work Effort: Evidence from the Seattle-Denver Experiment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 380-407, October.
    19. repec:fth:prinin:259 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:pri:cepsud:199ashenfelter is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Pasma Chandra, 2010. "Working Through the Work Disincentive," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-20, December.
    22. Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tuna Dökmeci & Carla Rainer & Alyssa Schneebaum, 2023. "Economic Security and Fertility: Evidence from the Mincome Experiment," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp332, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Koebel, Kourtney & Pohler, Dionne, 2024. "The effect of an unconditional government income transfer on the labour supply of lowincome workers," CLEF Working Paper Series 76, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ioana Marinescu, 2018. "No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs," NBER Working Papers 24337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Giupponi, Giulia, 2019. "When income effects are large: labor supply responses and the value of welfare transfers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103424, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. David J. Price & Jae Song, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance," Working Papers 621, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Giulia Giupponi, 2019. "When income effects are large: labor supply responses and the value of welfare transfers," CEP Discussion Papers dp1651, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Damon Jones & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-340, May.
    7. Wolfe, Barbara & Wilson, Kathryn & Haveman, Robert, 2001. "The role of economic incentives in teenage nonmarital childbearing choices," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 473-511, September.
    8. Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad & Mostafavi-Dehzooei, Mohammad H., 2018. "Cash transfers and labor supply: Evidence from a large-scale program in Iran," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 349-367.
    9. Jiaqi Yang & Geetha Mohan & Supriya Pipil & Kensuke Fukushi, 2021. "Review on basic income (BI): its theories and empirical cases," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(2), pages 203-239, December.
    10. Mery Ferrando & Cristian Pérez Muñoz & Gonzalo Salas, 2013. "Impuestos negativos a la renta en Uruguay: ¿una política redistributiva alternativa?," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, January.
    11. Otto Lehto & John Meadowcroft, 2021. "Welfare without rent seeking? Buchanan’s demogrant proposal and the possibility of a constitutional welfare state," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 145-164, June.
    12. Levasseur Karine & Paterson Stephanie & Carvalho Moreira Nathalia, 2018. "Conditional and Unconditional Cash Transfers: Implications for Gender," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, June.
    13. Saul D. Hoffman & E. Michael Foster, 2000. "AFDC Benefits and Nonmarital Births to Young Women," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(2), pages 376-391.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6148 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Brendan Epstein & Miles S. Kimball, 2014. "The Decline of Drudgery and the Paradox of Hard Work," International Finance Discussion Papers 1106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    17. Andrew Bibler & Mouhcine Guettabi & Matthew N. Reimer, 2023. "Universal Cash Transfers and Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 198-224, January.
    18. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1105-1166, December.
    19. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2009. "Critical Analysis of Some Well-Intended Proposals to Fight Unemployment," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-17, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    20. Anita Rizvi & Madeleine Kearns & Michael Dignam & Alison Coates & Melissa K. Sharp & Olivia Magwood & Patrick R. Labelle & Nour Elmestekawy & Sydney Rossiter & Ali A. A. Al‐Zubaidi & Omar Dewidar & Le, 2024. "Effects of guaranteed basic income interventions on poverty‐related outcomes in high‐income countries: A systematic review and meta‐analysis," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), June.
    21. Brownstone, David & Velletta, Robert G., 1996. "Modeling Earnings Measurement Error: A Multiple Imputation Approach," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2t08s22q, University of California Transportation Center.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:clefwp:36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://clef.uwaterloo.ca/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.