IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/clefwp/328272.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What did we learn from the North American income maintenance experiments? New data and evidence on household behavior and labor supply

Author

Listed:
  • Riddell, Chris
  • Riddell, William Craig

Abstract

We re-assess the consequences of a NIT for two-parent families, utilizing hitherto untapped data. The Gary and Seattle experiments fail balancing tests. In New Jersey, Denver and Manitoba we estimate far greater labor supply responses than the current consensus, with remarkable consistency in point estimates and statistical significance across experiments, genders and countries. On the other hand, using newly collected data from archival records, we estimate substantial increases in happiness, marital satisfaction, household production, and social activities in Manitoba. We also reject the contentious finding that the NIT increased marital separations in Seattle-Denver, which is driven solely by Seattle.

Suggested Citation

  • Riddell, Chris & Riddell, William Craig, 2025. "What did we learn from the North American income maintenance experiments? New data and evidence on household behavior and labor supply," CLEF Working Paper Series 91, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:clefwp:328272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/328272/1/1938237080.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Fitzgerald & Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1998. "An Analysis of Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 251-299.
    2. Robert A. Moffitt, 1979. "The Labor Supply Response in the Gary Experiment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(4), pages 477-487.
    3. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S. Welfare Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 119-140, Summer.
    4. Hum, Derek & Simpson, Wayne, 1993. "Economic Response to a Guaranteed Annual Income: Experience from Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 263-296, January.
    5. Victoria Hosegood & Anne Case & Cally Ardington, 2009. "Labor Supply Responses to Large Social Transfers: Longitudinal Evidence from South Africa," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 22-48, January.
    6. Philip K. Robins & Richard W. West, 1980. "Program Participation and Labor-Supply Response," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(4), pages 499-523.
    7. Chris Riddell & W. Craig Riddell, 2024. "Welfare versus Work under a Negative Income Tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver, and Manitoba Income Maintenance Experiments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 427-467.
    8. Riutort Sebastià & Laín Bru & Julià Albert, 2023. "Basic Income at Municipal Level: Insights from the Barcelona B-MINCOME Pilot," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-30, June.
    9. Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Saurabh Bhargava & Dayanand Manoli, 2015. "Psychological Frictions and the Incomplete Take-Up of Social Benefits: Evidence from an IRS Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3489-3529, November.
    11. Michael C. Keeley & Philip K. Robins, 1980. "Experimental Design, the Conlisk-Watts Assignment Model, and the Proper Estimation of Behavioral Response," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(4), pages 480-498.
    12. Keeley, Michael C, 1987. "The Effects of Experimental Negative Income Tax Programs on Marital Dissolution: Evidence from the Seattle and Denver Income Maintenance Experiments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 241-257, February.
    13. repec:pri:indrel:dsp01rv042t06t is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ashenfelter, Orley & Plant, Mark W, 1990. "Nonparametric Estimates of the Labor-Supply Effects of Negative Income Tax Programs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 396-415, January.
    15. Abhijit Banerjee & Paul Niehaus & Tavneet Suri, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the Developing World," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 959-983, August.
    16. Johannes Haushofer & Jeremy Shapiro, 2016. "The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: ExperimentalEvidence from Kenya," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1973-2042.
    17. Greenberg, David & Halsey, Harlan, 1983. "Systematic Misreporting and Effects of Income Maintenance Experiments on Work Effort: Evidence from the Seattle-Denver Experiment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 380-407, October.
    18. Hilary Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 929-958, August.
    19. repec:fth:prinin:259 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. David J. Price & Jae Song, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance," Working Papers 621, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    21. Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken, 2018. "Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 201-226, Fall.
    22. Bradley T. Heim, 2007. "The Incredible Shrinking Elasticities: Married Female Labor Supply, 1978–2002," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(4).
    23. Widerquist, Karl, 2005. "A failure to communicate: what (if anything) can we learn from the negative income tax experiments?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 49-81, February.
    24. Charles Murray, 2016. "In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 886642, September.
    25. Handa, Sudhanshu & Natali, Luisa & Seidenfeld, David & Tembo, Gelson & Davis, Benjamin, 2018. "Can unconditional cash transfers raise long-term living standards? Evidence from Zambia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 42-65.
    26. Eva Vivalt & Elizabeth Rhodes & Alexander W. Bartik & David E. Broockman & Patrick Krause & Sarah Miller, 2024. "The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 32719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Ioana Marinescu, 2018. "No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs," NBER Working Papers 24337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Wayne Simpson & Greg Mason & Ryan Godwin, 2017. "The Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment: Lessons Learned 40 Years Later," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 43(1), pages 85-104, March.
    29. Tammy Schirle, 2008. "Why Have the Labor Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased since the Mid-1990s?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 549-594, October.
    30. Juliana Londono-Velez & Pablo Querubin, 2022. "The Impact of Emergency Cash Assistance in a Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 157-165, March.
    31. Joel McGuire & Caspar Kaiser & Anders M. Bach-Mortensen, 2022. "A systematic review and meta-analysis of the impact of cash transfers on subjective well-being and mental health in low- and middle-income countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 359-370, March.
    32. Natasha V. Pilkauskas & Brian A. Jacob & Elizabeth Rhodes & Katherine Richard & H. Luke Shaefer, 2023. "The COVID Cash Transfer Study: The Impacts of a One‐Time Unconditional Cash Transfer on the Well‐Being of Families Receiving SNAP in Twelve States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 771-795, June.
    33. Greenberg, David & Moffitt, Robert & Friedmann, John, 1981. "Underreporting and Experimental Effects on Work Effort: Evidence from the Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 581-589, November.
    34. Philip K. Robins, 1985. "A Comparison of the Labor Supply Findings from the Four Negative Income Tax Experiments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(4), pages 567-582.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chris Riddell & W. Craig Riddell, 2024. "Welfare versus Work under a Negative Income Tax: Evidence from the Gary, Seattle, Denver, and Manitoba Income Maintenance Experiments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 427-467.
    2. Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Luduvice, André Victor Doherty, 2024. "The macroeconomic effects of universal basic income programs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Jouko Verho & Kari Hämäläinen & Ohto Kanninen, 2022. "Removing Welfare Traps: Employment Responses in the Finnish Basic Income Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 501-522, February.
    5. Anita Rizvi & Madeleine Kearns & Michael Dignam & Alison Coates & Melissa K. Sharp & Olivia Magwood & Patrick R. Labelle & Nour Elmestekawy & Sydney Rossiter & Ali A. A. Al‐Zubaidi & Omar Dewidar & Le, 2024. "Effects of guaranteed basic income interventions on poverty‐related outcomes in high‐income countries: A systematic review and meta‐analysis," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), June.
    6. Ioana Marinescu, 2018. "No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs," NBER Working Papers 24337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jiaqi Yang & Geetha Mohan & Supriya Pipil & Kensuke Fukushi, 2021. "Review on basic income (BI): its theories and empirical cases," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(2), pages 203-239, December.
    8. Gray Molina George & Montoya-Aguirre María & Ortiz-Juarez Eduardo, 2022. "Temporary Basic Income in Times of Pandemic: Rationale, Costs and Poverty-Mitigation Potential," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 125-154, December.
    9. Giupponi, Giulia, 2019. "When income effects are large: labor supply responses and the value of welfare transfers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103424, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Julia Malinka & Kristin Mitte & Matthias Ziegler, 2024. "Universal Basic Income and Autonomous Work Motivation: Influences on Trajectories of Mental Health in Employees," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1967-1996, August.
    11. Melline A. Somers & Ruud J. A. Muffels & Annemarie Kuenn-Nelen, 2025. "(Un)conditional Basic Income and Participation Income: A Review of Its Micro- and Macro-Economic Effects," De Economist, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 205-244, March.
    12. Xavier Ramos & Timo Verlaat & Federico Todeschini, 2023. "The Employment Effects of Generous and Unconditional Cash Support," Working Papers 638, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    13. Nishant Yonzan & Laxman Timilsina & Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020. "Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," NBER Working Papers 26712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Manuela A. de Paz-Báñez & María José Asensio-Coto & Celia Sánchez-López & María-Teresa Aceytuno, 2020. "Is There Empirical Evidence on How the Implementation of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) Affects Labour Supply? A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-36, November.
    15. Richard Dorsett, 2021. "A Bayesian structural time series analysis of the effect of basic income on crime: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 179-200, January.
    16. Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa & Quaranta, Roberto, 2025. "The uneven effects of conditional cash transfers on women and men," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    17. Reynolds, Robert Wallace, 2025. "The Dual-Track Universal Framework: Addressing AI Displacement and Innovation Asymmetry Through Dignity-Linked Income and Participation-Linked Innovation Currency," SocArXiv jdwqn_v1, Center for Open Science.
    18. Yonzan, Nishant & Timilsina, Laxman & Kelly, Inas Rashad, 2024. "Economic incentives surrounding fertility: Evidence from Alaska’s permanent fund dividend," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    19. Rothstein, Jesse & Von Wachter, Till, 2016. "Social Experiments in the Labor Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7957p9g6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    20. David J. Price & Jae Song, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance," Working Papers 621, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:clefwp:328272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://clef.uwaterloo.ca/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.