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Stepping Up During a Crisis: The Unintended Effects of a Noncontributory Pension Program during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Bottan, Nicolas L.
  • Hoffmann, Bridget
  • Vera-Cossio, Diego A.

Abstract

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to study the impacts of a noncontributory pension program covering one-third of Bolivian households during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the program was not designed to provide emergency assistance, it took on additional importance during the crisis, providing unintended positive impacts. Becoming eligible for the program during the crisis increased by 25 percent the probability that households had a week's worth of food stocked and decreased the probability of going hungry by 40 percent. Relative to the pre-pandemic years, the program's effect on hunger is magnified during the crisis. The program's effects were particularly large for households that lost their livelihoods during the crisis and for low-income households. The results suggest that, during a systemic crisis, a preexisting near-universal pension program can quickly deliver positive impacts in line with the primary goals of a social safety net composed of an income-targeted cash transfer and an unemployment insurance program.

Suggested Citation

  • Bottan, Nicolas L. & Hoffmann, Bridget & Vera-Cossio, Diego A., 2020. "Stepping Up During a Crisis: The Unintended Effects of a Noncontributory Pension Program during the Covid-19 Pandemic," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 10841, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:10841
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002853
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    1. Beuermann, Diether W. & Hoffmann, Bridget & Stampini, Marco & Vargas, David L. & Vera-Cossio, Diego, 2025. "Shooting a moving target: Evaluating targeting tools for social programs when income fluctuates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Martin Paul Jr. Tabe‐Ojong & Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan & Emmanuel Nshakira‐Rukundo & Jan Börner & Thomas Heckelei, 2022. "COVID‐19 in rural Africa: Food access disruptions, food insecurity and coping strategies in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 719-738, September.
    3. Michele DI MAIO & Francesco FASANI & Valerio Leone SCIABOLAZZA & Vasco MOLINI, 2024. "Facing displacement and a global pandemic: evidence from a fragile state," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(3), pages 460-480, September.
    4. Aiken, Emily & Bellue, Suzanne & Blumenstock, Joshua E. & Karlan, Dean & Udry, Christopher, 2025. "Estimating impact with surveys versus digital traces: Evidence from randomized cash transfers in Togo," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    5. Cho,Yoonyoung & Molina,Teresa Sacro, 2024. "The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10669, The World Bank.
    6. Campos, Francisco & Hernandez-de-Benito, Maria & Jamison, Julian C. & Safir, Abla & Zia, Bilal, 2025. "Persistent yet ameliorable shocks to female entrepreneurship: Experimental evidence from Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Yanina Domenella & Julian C. Jamison & Abla Safir & Bilal Zia, 2021. "Can Business Grants Mitigate a Crisis? Evidence from Youth Entrepreneurs in Kenya during COVID-19," Discussion Papers 2110, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    8. Strupat, Christoph, 2021. "The preserving effect of social protection on social cohesion during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Kenya," IDOS Discussion Papers 33/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), revised 2021.
    9. Domenella,Yanina Eliana & Jamison,Julian C & Safir,Abla & Zia,Bilal Husnain, 2021. "Can Business Grants Mitigate a Crisis ? Evidence from Youth Entrepreneurs in Kenya during COVID-19," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9874, The World Bank.
    10. Guerrero-Amezaga, Maria Elena & Humphries, John Eric & Neilson, Christopher A. & Shimberg, Naomi & Ulyssea, Gabriel, 2022. "Small firms and the pandemic: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    11. Stampini, Marco & Medellín, Nadin & Ibarrarán, Pablo, 2023. "Cash Transfers, Poverty, and Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13191, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Kibrom A Abay & Nishant Yonzan & Sikandra Kurdi & Kibrom Tafere, 2023. "Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 44-68.
    13. Furbush, Ann M. & Josephson, Anna & Kilic, Talip & Michler, Jeffrey D., 2025. "Coping or hoping? Livelihood diversification and food insecurity in the COVID-19 pandemic," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Cañedo, Ana P. & Fabregas, Raissa & Gupta, Prankur, 2023. "Emergency cash transfers for informal workers: Impact evidence from Mexico," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    15. Ahmed, Akhter & Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab & Hoddinott, John F. & Roy, Shalini, 2024. "Does nutrition-sensitive social protection build longer-term resilience? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh," IFPRI discussion papers 2282, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Xinxin Ma, 2022. "Social Insurances and Risky Financial Market Participation: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 2957-2975, August.
    17. Gourlay, Sydney & Kilic, Talip & Martuscelli, Antonio & Wollburg, Philip & Zezza, Alberto, 2021. "Viewpoint: High-frequency phone surveys on COVID-19: Good practices, open questions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Brooks, Wyatt & Donovan, Kevin & Johnson, Terence R. & Oluoch-Aridi, Jackline, 2022. "Cash transfers as a response to COVID-19: Experimental evidence from Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    19. Md Akhtaruzzaman & Ramzi Benkraiem & Sabri Boubaker & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "COVID‐19 crisis and risk spillovers to developing economies: Evidence from Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 898-918, May.
    20. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Lokshin, Michael & Torre, Iván, 2024. "Protect incomes or protect jobs? The role of social policies in post-pandemic recovery," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    21. Molina, Teresa & Cho, Yoon Y., 2024. "The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times," IZA Discussion Papers 16737, IZA Network @ LISER.
    22. Christoph Strupat, 2022. "Social Protection and Social Cohesion in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Kenya," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1320-1357, June.
    23. Strupat, Christoph, 2021. "The preserving effect of social protection on social cohesion during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Kenya," MPRA Paper 111501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Nataliya Vnukova & Daria Davydenko & Svitlana Achkasova & Olexandr Yagolnitskyi, 2022. "Assessing the Activities of Insurance Companies Due to the Disease of Private Pension," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 179-194.
    25. de Leon, Fernanda L. Lopez & Malde, Bansi & McQuillin, Ben, 2023. "The effects of emergency government cash transfers on beliefs and behaviours during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 140-155.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

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