IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/11014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Coping or Hoping ? Livelihood Diversification and Food Insecurity in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Furbush,Ann M.
  • Josephson,Anna
  • Talip Kilic
  • Michler,Jeffrey D.

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of livelihood diversification on food insecurity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis uses household panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in which the first round was collected immediately prior to the pandemic and extends through multiple rounds of monthly data collection during the pandemic. Using this pre- and post-outbreak data, and guided by a pre-analysis plan, the paper estimates the causal effect of livelihood diversification on food insecurity. The results do not support the hypothesis that livelihood diversification boosts household resilience. Although income diversification may serve as an effective coping mechanism for small-scale shocks, the findings show that for a disaster on the scale of the pandemic, this strategy is not effective. Policy makers looking to prepare for the increased occurrence of large-scale disasters will need to grapple with the fact that coping strategies that gave people hope in the past may fail them as they try to cope with the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Furbush,Ann M. & Josephson,Anna & Talip Kilic & Michler,Jeffrey D., 2025. "Coping or Hoping ? Livelihood Diversification and Food Insecurity in the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11014, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099830101072519538/pdf/IDU-b45f8bf4-0406-493a-8b9e-2cfbee039761.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mulwa, Chalmers K. & Visser, Martine, 2020. "Farm diversification as an adaptation strategy to climatic shocks and implications for food security in northern Namibia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Bloem, Jeffrey & Michler, Jeffrey & Josephson, Anna & Rudin-Rush, Lorin, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Food Insecurity During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Four African Countries," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Administr), July.
    3. Humphreys, Macartan & Sanchez de la Sierra, Raul & van der Windt, Peter, 2013. "Fishing, Commitment, and Communication: A Proposal for Comprehensive Nonbinding Research Registration," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Stephan Dietrich & Valerio Giuffrida & Bruno Martorano & Georg Schmerzeck, 2022. "COVID‐19 policy responses, mobility, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 569-588, March.
    5. Benjamin A. Olken, 2015. "Promises and Perils of Pre-analysis Plans," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 61-80, Summer.
    6. Mahmud, Mahreen & Riley, Emma, 2021. "Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Aslihan Arslan & Romina Cavatassi & Federica Alfani & Nancy Mccarthy & Leslie Lipper & Misael Kokwe, 2018. "Diversification Under Climate Variability as Part of a CSA Strategy in Rural Zambia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 457-480, March.
    8. Gulesci, Selim & Puente–Beccar, Manuela & Ubfal, Diego, 2021. "Can youth empowerment programs reduce violence against girls during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Anna Josephson & Talip Kilic & Jeffrey D. Michler, 2021. "Socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 in low-income countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 557-565, May.
    10. Rudin-Rush, Lorin & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Josephson, Anna & Bloem, Jeffrey R., 2022. "Food insecurity during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Marta Favara & Richard Freund & Catherine Porter & Alan Sanchez & Douglas Scott, 2022. "Young Lives, Interrupted: Short-Term Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Adolescents in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(6), pages 1063-1080, June.
    12. Brooks, Wyatt & Donovan, Kevin & Johnson, Terence R. & Oluoch-Aridi, Jackline, 2022. "Cash transfers as a response to COVID-19: Experimental evidence from Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. McKenzie, David, 2012. "Beyond baseline and follow-up: The case for more T in experiments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 210-221.
    14. Gupta, Divya & Fischer, Harry & Shrestha, Suchita & Shoaib Ali, Syed & Chhatre, Ashwini & Devkota, Kamal & Fleischman, Forrest & Khatri, Dil B. & Rana, Pushpendra, 2021. "Dark and bright spots in the shadow of the pandemic: Rural livelihoods, social vulnerability, and local governance in India and Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Smith, Michael D. & Rabbitt, Matthew P. & Coleman- Jensen, Alisha, 2017. "Who are the World’s Food Insecure? New Evidence from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 402-412.
    16. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    17. Hamid R. Oskorouchi & Alfonso Sousa‐Poza, 2021. "Floods, food security, and coping strategies: Evidence from Afghanistan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 123-140, January.
    18. Dagunga, Gilbert & Ayamga, Micheal & Danso-Abbeam, Gideon, 2020. "To what extent should farm households diversify? Implications on multidimensional poverty in Ghana," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    19. Berkouwer, Susanna B. & Biscaye, Pierre E. & Puller, Steven & Wolfram, Catherine D., 2022. "Disbursing emergency relief through utilities: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Stoop, Nik & Desbureaux, Sébastien & Kaota, Audacieux & Lunanga, Elie & Verpoorten, Marijke, 2021. "Covid-19 vs. Ebola: Impact on households and small businesses in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    21. Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan & Rischke, Ramona, 2016. "Analyzing nutritional impacts of price and income related shocks in Malawi: Simulating household entitlements to food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 31-43.
    22. Sadish, D & Adhvaryu, Achyuta & Nyshadham, Anant, 2021. "(Mis)information and anxiety: Evidence from a randomized Covid-19 information campaign," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    23. Smith, Lisa C. & Frankenberger, Timothy R., 2018. "Does Resilience Capacity Reduce the Negative Impact of Shocks on Household Food Security? Evidence from the 2014 Floods in Northern Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 358-376.
    24. Giles John & Murtazashvili Irina, 2013. "A Control Function Approach to Estimating Dynamic Probit Models with Endogenous Regressorsa," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 69-87, July.
    25. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    26. Frank Ellis, 1998. "Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-38.
    27. Kansiime, Monica K. & Tambo, Justice A. & Mugambi, Idah & Bundi, Mary & Kara, Augustine & Owuor, Charles, 2021. "COVID-19 implications on household income and food security in Kenya and Uganda: Findings from a rapid assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    28. Adjognon, Guigonan Serge & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Sanoh, Aly, 2021. "The coronavirus pandemic and food security: Evidence from Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    29. Andrew W. Stevens & Jim Teal, 2024. "Diversification and resilience of firms in the agrifood supply chain," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 739-778, March.
    30. Michler, Jeffrey D. & Josephson, Anna L., 2017. "To Specialize or Diversify: Agricultural Diversity and Poverty Dynamics in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 214-226.
    31. Gero Carletto & Marco Tiberti & Alberto Zezza, 2022. "Measure for Measure: Comparing Survey Based Estimates of Income and Consumption for Rural Households [Obtaining Useful Data on Household Incomes from Surveys]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 37(1), pages 1-38.
    32. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    33. Gutierrez, Emilio & Rubli, Adrian & Tavares, Tiago, 2022. "Information and behavioral responses during a pandemic: Evidence from delays in Covid-19 death reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duy Linh Nguyen & Trung Thanh Nguyen & Ulrike Grote, 2023. "Shocks, household consumption, and livelihood diversification: a comparative evidence from panel data in rural Thailand and Vietnam," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3223-3255, October.
    2. Rudin-Rush, Lorin & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Josephson, Anna & Bloem, Jeffrey R., 2022. "Food insecurity during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Donatella Saccone, 2021. "Can the Covid19 pandemic affect the achievement of the ‘Zero Hunger’ goal? Some preliminary reflections," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(7), pages 1025-1038, September.
    4. Kibrom A Abay & Nishant Yonzan & Sikandra Kurdi & Kibrom Tafere, 2023. "Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 44-68.
    5. Brunckhorst, Ben & Cojocaru, Alexandru & Kim, Yeon Soo & Kugler, Maurice, 2024. "Long COVID: The evolution of household welfare in developing countries during the pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong & Emmanuel Nshakira-Rukundo & Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan, 2023. "COVID-19 and food insecurity in Africa: A review of the emerging empirical evidence," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(3), pages 853-878.
    7. Bloem, Jeffrey & Michler, Jeffrey & Josephson, Anna & Rudin-Rush, Lorin, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Food Insecurity During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Four African Countries," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Administr), July.
    8. Elisabete Nogueira & Sofia Gomes & João M. Lopes, 2022. "The Key to Sustainable Economic Development: A Triple Bottom Line Approach," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Islam, Masanori Matsuura Yir-Huieh Luh Abu Hayat Md. Saiful, 2021. "Climate Variability, Livelihood Diversification, and Household Food Security in Bangladesh," 2021 ASAE 10th International Conference (Virtual), January 11-13, Beijing, China 329402, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    10. Hangoma, Peter & Hachhethu, Kusum & Passeri, Silvia & Norheim, Ole Frithjof & Rivers, Johnathan & Mæstad, Ottar, 2024. "Short- and long-term food insecurity and policy responses in pandemics: Panel data evidence from COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    11. Mazhar Mughal & Charlotte Fontan Sers, 2020. "Cereal production, undernourishment, and food insecurity in South Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 524-545, May.
    12. Nan Li & Muzi Chen & Difang Huang, 2022. "How Do Logistics Disruptions Affect Rural Households? Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Guedegbe, Tharcisse & Adelaja, Adesoji & George, Justin, 2023. "Resilience, endogenous policy responses to COVID-19, and their impacts on farm performance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Georgeta Vintilă & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2017. "Empirical Study towards the Drivers of Sustainable Economic Growth in EU-28 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Youngho Kang & Byung-Yeon Kim, 2018. "Immigration and economic growth: do origin and destination matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(46), pages 4968-4984, October.
    16. Vieira, Flávio & MacDonald, Ronald & Damasceno, Aderbal, 2012. "The role of institutions in cross-section income and panel data growth models: A deeper investigation on the weakness and proliferation of instruments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 127-140.
    17. Kitazawa, Yoshitsugu, 2001. "Exponential regression of dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 7-13, October.
    18. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    19. Efobi, Uchenna & Asongu, Simplice & Okafor, Chinelo & Tchamyou, Vanessa & Tanankem, Belmondo, 2016. "Diaspora Remittance Inflow, Financial Development and the Industrialisation of Africa," MPRA Paper 76121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Eschenhof, Sabine, 2009. "Standard Taylor rules revisited: A cross country study for European countries," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 196, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.